EASY LIVING in South Africa – ICJ Ruling – Expats – Wisdom – Safair Wins – Peace Call – Space Cell – Prepping Hints – Inflation SA – Election SA - ‘Letter from South Africa’ - [01-27-24]

“Once committed to a way of life, a man puts the greatest strength in the world behind him. It’s something called ‘heart-power’ and nothing will stop him short of success.” [Vince Lombardi]

Cape Town Hawkers’ Wafeeq Alexander Justin van den Broek, Ryan Fransman and Mustaqeem Petersen gather for a group picture during a short break in Tuesday’s “Tweede Nuwe Jaar” proceedings. Picture: Fuad Esack

LIVING 34 Degrees South has magical benefits

When compared to my dismal experiences at 50 Degrees North it’s a no-brainer!  It’s not generally understood that Britain is positioned close to the Arctic Circle with only the Gulf Stream to maintain a temperate maritime climate during June – August (the 'summer' season, LOL), but it does bring unique agricultural benefits, with a short and powerful growing season, fertile soils, and plenty of rain.  Britain could easily be self-sufficient in food production if only HMG would get out of the way!

However, for me, there is no substitute for the eight months of sunny summers here in Simons Town to which I thankfully returned after a self-imposed exile of 14 years in the land of my birth.

28 years ago I retired from the company I founded and was determined to sail the world and find paradise. I found it in 1999 when I sailed into the False Bay Yacht Club (FBYC) which immediately became my home port.  I was single, footloose, and fancy-free, and life was a continual round of partying, song, and dance with fellow yachters all of whom were enjoying the freedom of the seas.

IN SIMONS TOWN THE LIVING IS EASY - I will discuss why this is so by reviewing subject headings in a potted summary.

Life Style – The climate is coastal Mediterranean, with Northern European characteristics (such as the lack of siesta but with winter rains). Still, at my age I often drop off anyway for a few hours, when the sun is on the wane, at a comfortable 30C. - like now, as I write. As in the Med, people live mostly outside which encourages increased positive social interactions.  The air quality is exceptional and healthy, coming directly from the Antarctic, with salty overtones from the sea.  We have winter rains in the Cape but East of the Fish River the climate becomes sub-tropical and they have summer rains.

Our manageable, low-stress, on-the-level, 30-sq m flat (built as a yacht with 50+ lockers, a cabin, saloon, galley, and heads) on the mountain, overlooking False Bay where we watch the many fishing boats and yachts making their way to and from FBYC and where I spend too much of my time, relaxing, chin-wagging, and laughing a lot.

In public, at the shops and markets, everyone smiles and interacts politely displaying strong family bonds, responsible behaviour, and without a trace of racism.  The Cape is truly representative of the Rainbow Nation.  All the highways, streets, and malls are spotless with NO litter anywhere to be found.  And security is intense, with the South African Police Service (SAPS) working cooperatively with private security firms. I see at least four or more police cars each day, many fully manned police stations, and lots of bobbies (aka 'cops') on the beat reminiscent of 1950s Britain. 24-hour 'armed response' cars are seen 24/7.  I've been living in Simons Town for six weeks, having enjoyed the clear blue skies (no vapour trails or chemtrails in sight), and also no rain with months of summer to come.

Our services work well in the Western Cape, our water supply is wonderfully soft, (such a relief from UK Wessex Water’s high-lime offering), although it's intermittent (due to elderly piping), we are not bothered because our swimming pool provides much more than the storage we need and is replenished by the winter rains.

Readers will have heard about Load-shedding in our electricity supply but again, in the Cape, our providers, Eskom are dealing with it and we have full backup anyway.  The warm and dry weather means little clothing, (thank goodness, I have disposed of 'British' socks), and thus there are no heavy washing and drying cycles – we did have a washing machine and a drier in the UK.  Therefore electricity consumption per capita in South Africa is a quarter of that in Britain, having minimal heating costs in the Cape. [Per annum: UK: 14,200 kWh versus SA 3,377 kWh].

Food and drink produce is abundant, and often locally sourced, with fresh fruit and vegetables and of course, in the Cape, we have the fruits of the sea, including fresh bluefin tuna, prawns and crayfish, salmon, and SA hake (which is like cod).  We also have the wine routes with many vineyards spread around the Province. I can buy 5L local table wine for £7 which is pleasant, soft, and easy on the palate (unlike the French vin ordinaire!).  The supermarkets put our British ones to shame – they are vast and very well stocked with a wide range and variety of choices.

Transport & Driving is a pleasure in SA with few potholes, smooth tarmac (no road rumble), and long straight roads which allow for 80,000 km on a set of tyres. There's no MOT system, only a road-worthy check when a car is exchanged or sold.  The dealers generally take care of this although there is a lively private second-hand market.  OK – Transnet (State railways) has some problems but like any failure, there are always innovators ready to offer positive solutions. Safair was voted the best low-cost airline in the world!

I drove to Cape Town this week, for the third time, to manage my short-term car hire until I can secure a temporary run-about.  I could easily walk the 2 km to town 14 years ago but now a car is a must for us – age takes its toll.  The drive to Cape Town was an absolute pleasure with smooth roads and no potholes, civil and forgiving fellow motorists, 21st-century signage, and very professional traffic management systems from which the British could take a few lessons.  Parking is a dream with large bays, and private car guards, often from the DRC, with whom I can exchange a few words in French, which they enjoy, because not many South Africans speak French.

The wildlife is astounding. On the mountain, we have lots of birds including the noisy Hadeda Ibis, which fly by every morning on their way to Cape Point. The distinctive “HaDeDa” call is given as the bird takes off, is in flight, or is just startled. At dawn the Hadeda has a very vocal call and then again at night when they come home to roost. Unlike other Ibis species, the Hadeda is monogamous. Breeding is just after the rainy season.

But we also have many other characters including lots of snakes,  a pair of dwarf mongooses that live in the garden below, geckos that visit every day and bask in the sun, harvest mice, and of course, the ubiquitous Baboon troops which are well-managed by our Simons Town volunteer monitors.

The important issue of money and the cost of living is tough for South Africans who have suffered inflation and interest rate rises the same as the Brits and Europeans. We do save on energy with free sunlight and there's plenty of wood for the braai (BBQ).  But average middle-class salaries are around £1,000/month ((ZAR 25,000) which leaves little spare disposable income.  The exchange rate works for me, of course, where I can eat out for £5/head, and £50 buys a month's food supply. Some Brits are taking the plunge and moving out. - surprise, SURPRISE!

There are a few downsides in the Cape, but they are of no real concern. We have a powerful South East wind during the summer months which might last a day or three (up to force 10!) and there are occasional fires on the mountain which are well contained by our magnificent volunteer firefighters assisted by the sturdy water-bombing Huey helicopters.  But the aftermath is a pain with fine black ash blowing around for weeks.  And the flies swarm in again:

Overall all, small-is-beautiful, less-is-more, and the living is easy.

STOP PRESS - ICJ Rules in Favour of South Africa

The UN General Assembly (UNGA) is the main policy-making organ of the United Nations organisation. Comprising all Member States (193), it provides a unique forum for multilateral discussion of the full spectrum of international issues covered by the Charter of the United Nations.

“The UN’s 'International Court of Justice' (ICJ) has ordered Israel to ensure its forces do not commit acts of genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, in a historic decision.  In an interim judgment delivered on Friday, the president of the court, Joan Donoghue, said Israel must “take all measures within its power” to prevent acts that fall within the scope of the genocide convention and must ensure “with immediate effect” that its forces do not commit any of the acts covered by the convention.

The court stopped short of granting South Africa’s request to order an immediate ceasefire to the war, which has destroyed much of the Gaza Strip and killed more than 25,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities.

The ruling is not the final word from the court on whether Israel’s actions amount to genocide, but it provides a strong indication that the judges believe there is a credible risk to Palestinians under the genocide convention. Granting South Africa’s application for special measures, the court did not have to find whether Israel had committed genocide, which will be determined at a later date, but only that its acts were capable of falling within the genocide convention and that urgent preventive action was necessary.

“The court is also of the view that Israel must take measures within its power to prevent and punish the direct and public incitement to commit genocide in relation to the members of the Palestinian groups in the Gaza Strip,” the US judge said. “The court further considers that Israel must take immediate and effective measures to enable the provision of urgently needed basic services and humanitarian assistance to address the adverse conditions of life faced by Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.”

A statement from the South African foreign ministry called it “a decisive victory for the international rule of law and a significant milestone in the search for justice for the Palestinian people” and expressed hope “that Israel will not act to frustrate the application of this order, as it has publicly threatened to do, but that it will instead act to comply with it fully, as it is bound to do”. More detail HERE and HERE.

NEWS FLASH

Emigration is shifting in South Africa.  Not only is there a declining number of South Africans selling their houses to emigrate, but several finance and property experts have also highlighted a return of South African expats. Tax Consulting SA said that this is due to a variety of factors, such as lifestyle, lower cost of living, and the allure of affordable luxury home ownership which is near impossible in many other markets and popular emigrant destinations.

“As the desire to return gains momentum, our practice has seen an increasing number of expatriates inquiring about the practicalities of coming back to South Africa,” Tax Consulting SA said.  Rory O’Hagan, principal of the Chas Everitt Hyde Park and Sandton office, has also highlighted South African expats returning, especially to the nation’s most attractive city, Cape Town.

FUN TIDBIT – Wisdom of the Ancients

THOUGHT FOR THE WEEK - Which country’s low-cost airline is the best in the world? 

South Africa wins again!  FlySafair is the most on-time low-cost carrier in the world.  This is according to aviation analytics company Cirium’s latest On-Time Performance Review, which studies over 30 million flights a year. As per the review, flights that arrive within 14 minutes and 59 seconds of their scheduled arrival are considered on time.

“On-time performance is core to the running of a successful airline, and the good ones take it very seriously indeed – not only does OTP impact customer perception, but also cost management, environmental impact, network design, and even soft issues like crew morale, which will again influence customer experience,” Cirium’s William Boulter said.

BREAKING SOUTH AFRICAN NEWS

ANGLOSPHERE WAR STATEGY - How it affects South Africa whose Lawyers are to be referred to as, “Hamas-backed lawyers” in all media reporting. Any journalist who fails to do this will be fired faster than you can say “Mehdi Hasan”.  South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said: “We just want people to stop dying”. An angry Twitter user posted: “Never again means you can never stop a genocide again! That was the lesson the world was supposed to learn!”

South Africa condemned for trying to stop a genocide

Cell Phone Service from Space – The Final Frontier.  The new service aims to offer connections using normal consumer cell phones, rather than costly wireless equipment that's been used for decades. Carriers say the satellite-linked phones will likely be used in remote areas where cell reception is poor or nil.

SURVIVAL MONITOR – Being Prepared

 As a lifelong yachtsman, I have had to be a 'Prepper'; “forearmed is forewarned”.  The current serialisation of my book “The Financial Jigsaw – Part 2” is all about surviving and prospering following a gradual transition away from our unsustainable 'consumerist' economic model based on debt and materialism to 'less-is-more', localisation.

The first rule of preparedness is always to have a 'backup' of all essentials – but not one - two are needed because, with one, when you have to use the backup, you have no backup!  We live in a flat built as a cruising yacht with 50+ lockers so the adage: “Everything has a place, everything in its place” holds for essential items but will disappear for long periods otherwise.  The lessons I have learned at sea have stood me well for 60 years; I am imparting my lessons and experience in my Part 2 - 2024 book.

I love lists, and especially 'checklists' because my memory fails me often and I cannot multitask like my wife. There are good reasons for this and a short comedic video will reveal the differences between the male and the female brain:

Many life-threatening situations can catch Preppers off-guard.  But you can prepare for most disasters by stocking up on essential supplies like food and survival gear.  And while even the most experienced Prepper can't anticipate all disaster scenarios, knowing you're prepared can help ease some of your worries.  Detailed are 50 survival items you should always have in your home before SHTF. (h/t to AskAPrepper.com)

INFLATION

“South Africa's annual inflation rate dipped for the second month to 5.1% in December 2023, from 5.5% in November and just below market forecasts of 5.2%. It was the lowest reading in four months, edging closer to the South African Reserve Bank's preferred 4.5% midpoint of the 3–6% target range. Prices decelerated mainly for food and non-alcoholic beverages (8.5% vs 9% in November), including items such as bread & cereals, oils & fats, sugar, sweets and desserts, vegetables, and hot beverages. Transportation costs also went up less (2.6% vs 4.3%) due to a drop in fuel prices (-2.5% vs 1.8%). Conversely, faster increases were seen for housing & utilities (5.7% vs 5.5%); restaurants & hotels (7% vs 6.3%), health (6.5% vs 6.4%), among others. The annual core inflation was steady at 4.5% in December, aligning closely with market forecasts of 4.6%. Monthly, consumer prices were flat in December, after falling 0.1% in the prior month and compared with market expectations of a 0.1% increase. Source: Statistics South Africa”

The rand should be near ZAR15 to the USD – here's why it's not.  Load-shedding began 20 years ago when Eskom created colour codes ranging from green (no shortage) to red (worst case), indicating the absence or presence of a capacity constraint:

• Green – Adequate generation to meet demand and reserves.

• Yellow – Smaller than 1,000 MW, possibly short to meet reserves.

• Orange – 1,001 MW to 2,000 MW, short to meet reserves and possibly demand.

• Red – Over 2,001 MW short to meet demand and reserves.

The outlook between January 1, 2024 and December 30, 2024 shows that the likely risk scenario is red for all 52 weeks. This points to a shortfall of over 2,001 MW every week. Simply put, Eskom expects severe electricity generation shortages for all of 2024.  This means South Africans should expect severe load-shedding in 2024.

It's particularly telling that the same report for 2023 showed Eskom’s planned risk levels were red for only two weeks.  2023 was the worst year for load-shedding with regular stage 6 power cuts throughout the year.  The prediction for 2024 is no better that last year but at least we are prepared.

NARRATIVE BATTLE - Failed State?

South Africa is often dubbed a failed state but this is not entirely true. I always look at the condition of the roads as a first indicator of a declining state, and when compared with Britain, the roads in SA are exceptional. SA tax revenue last year was positive. Domestically, sentiment concerns linger around the coming 2024 national elections, as it's widely expected that a coalition government will come to power.

The exact nature of a coalition government after the national elections is unknown, but is dulling business confidence and causing some volatility in local markets.  “Downside risks to the economic outlook particularly come from an increased left-leaning stance in government after the elections, with such municipal coalitions already having seen deteriorating service delivery, provides an anti-business, and so growth, stance.  Despite these worries, there are some positives to note, for example, South Africa’s inflation outlook is positive with headline inflation down around 4.5% and even dipping lower at times.

However, the good news: “South Africans spent billions over the 2023 December period, with data-capturing organisation NIQ reporting that alcohol and chicken were top choices, while the go-to purchases in the technology category were smartphones, fridges, and televisions.”

COMING NEXT:

• BOOM weekly global review - Tuesday, January 30, 2024

• The Financial Jigsaw Part 2 - Chapter 3 -  'Propaganda' – Saturday February 3, 2024

• Letter from Great Britain - Latest from Broken Britain - Saturday, February 10, 2024

REFERENCES 

My Book: “The Financial Jigsaw” Parts 1 & 2 Scroll:   https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358117070_THE_FINANCIAL_JIGSAW_-_PART_1_-_4th_Edition_2020   including regular updates.