Your comment 'N' didn't appear here (I got the email) so I reproduce it now:
"The Russian Ruble currency and the Chinese Yuan currently make up less than 2% of global foreign currency holdings in central banks..... Great, but that was last year's reality. We're are in a dynamic situation since Feb 2022 and you can't forecast the 2023 reality based on what happened last year....
Political decisions made in 2023 trump all other forecast parameters defined by prior year static statistics. I've developed machine learning algorithms for decades and I can tell you that there is NOBODY out there who can predict what's going to happen tomorrow. That's why I use only a holistic approach that take into account geopolitical changes and existing data to adjust my parameters continuously in order to have an idea of what's going to happen.
Some people believe in magic and think that there is somebody out there with a crystal ball that can correctly forecast the future! If you don't have a complete set of parameters, there is no way you can correctly forecast the future and I don't know who can have a complete set of parameters in a dynamic system.... There are unknowns, there are known unknowns and there are unknown unknowns. That's the issue with forecasting. "
I think it 's an occasional bug in SS. And I do agree, 'N' but it does appear, given past predictions, that BOOM has a special tea cup! Me? I use a dart board!
Apr 4, 2023·edited Apr 4, 2023Liked by PROTECT & SURVIVE
I have a problem with BOOM's 100 Million barrels demand per day and the USD.
This figure represents the global daily production in all countries and not the global volume exchanged with other countries that require the use of a foreign currency (USD, GBP, Yen, Euro).
Not all transactions are settled in USD. E.g: Iran was kicked out of SWIFT and still sells more than 3 million barrels per day. It also consumes its own oil. The same is true for Russia and Venezuela. Are those volumes being taken into account?
It also includes the daily production that ends up in storage meaning zero transactions involved.
It also includes the internal consumption.
Example: Saudi Arabia may produce 12 mbpd, stores 3 mbpd and consumes 3 mbpd. I am not sure that they need USD transactions in order to consume their own oil internally. They'll later sell the stored oil in Yuhan/Euro/USD/GBP and even in Kenyan Shilling to name a few.
The way I analyze the de-dollarization impact on the USD is by tracking which country is instructing its people to avoid the USD (this is more holistic) - there are already a couple that publicly stated their intent, starting with Indonesia that fired the shot during the G20 meeting last year. 90% of their reserves are going to be in currencies other than the USD and MasterCard/VISA are going to be phased out. And this is a big economy!
I am tracking countries that have decided to dump the USD in their transactions with other countries: eg. India does not even produce oil for export, but they have decided to use Rupees to trade with 18 countries and more are going to join. They have an economy of $8 Trillion in PPP, meaning that their trade with foreign countries is huge even compared to those countries that produce oil. No GCC country has the economic weight of India and they sell tons of oil per day.
ASEAN countries do not produce oil for export, only for internal consumption since the volume is limited. BUT, the trade volume among the 10 members is ~$600 Billion per year and they've decided that they'll NOT be using foreign currencies anymore for trade among member states!
Brazil and Argentina are working on trading in their currencies. Once that's ready, I bet all Latin American countries will follow their model.
Brazil and China ($150 billion yearly trade) are dumping the USD. With or without oil doesn't matter.
It's the global trade volume that hurts the USD.
Russia and China are the leaders of the movement!
Also note that investments are also being de-dollarized. It's not just trade. The Saudis have just invested 89 Billion Yuhan in a refinery in China and that's just the tip of the iceberg.
Another point being ignored by BOOM is that when you don't sell your oil in USD, you don't have to buy US treasury bonds - i.e US debt!!!!
For me facts and political will are more important than theoretical considerations.
Apr 4, 2023·edited Apr 4, 2023Liked by PROTECT & SURVIVE
I don't find the argument compelling that US $ transactions (and the Euro) cannot be replaced quickly just because the large volume they have presently relatively speaking. At least the 50-100 year timeframe seems like the other extreme in this regard, and things are happening faster than anybody could have imagined, and old tools are being discarded seems evident - they obviously don't work.
New systems are being put in place and who wants to wait 50+ years for this....I don't think we have that much time especially as you say if the bullies who think they are in control of fiscal matters by default continue to plunder, steal, and harm so many by choice to maintain their hegemony they once had and don't realize have already lost by virtue of their own choices. If faith is lost in a fiat currency, just because it is the "biggest" seems sort of meaningless - once faith is lost beyond the point of no-return, it can't be recovered.
So much high-energy flux has been released that previous concepts of financial transactions can be replaced on a dime I suspect because response to the harm is demanded in the here and now. I mean you trade your goods to me and I'll compensate in currency for which we both have faith. Why continue transactions in a fiat currency losing faith most rapidly? It seems pointless and just perpetuates currency for the sake of its scale....but if the harm is "off-the-scale" and the desire is to put an end to the harm, then truly it makes no sense to conduct transaction (even big ones) using fiat for which faith is rapidly diminishing day-by-day.
Of course there is uncertainty, but once momentum forms towards new and better ideas, the change becomes exponential and for good reason because truly the harmful hegemony is identified, and no longer respected and serious change and flux is upon us and there is no stopping it. Like a tsunami it will unstoppable. I believe we are in for a period of increasing acceleration towards new and better ideas and this will occur faster and on a much shorter time-frame than folks who ascribe to the system being replaced can contemplate.
But, that is just my reading of the "tea leaves" and probably biased by what I desire which is an end to the bully hegemony that has caused so much needless harm. Time will tell, but sadly I suspect neither you and I will be able to come back here in 50-100 years, so lets come back on one year and revisit this post.
One year from now is 4424 (April 4, 2024) and four days after that there is going to be a total eclipse of the Sun that runs through the heart of America. I plan on being in Buffalo on that day (4824) in the middle of the ribbon of the eclipse.
Peter - this is a post I have made at some other places, so let me make it hear. No offense meant.
~~~~
Rick - I'm thinking of cutting some cords on my Substack accounts - what you think - should I cut you off?
I appreciate your opinion on this even though sometimes it seems you have a hard time saying you could give a shit......and I appreciate that, so please take that into consideration if you respond if you do, but if you don't then I'll take that into consideration.
Ken
ps - I posted this at Ray's place and said I would cut & paste it, so to be true to my word that is what I'm doing.
Your comment 'N' didn't appear here (I got the email) so I reproduce it now:
"The Russian Ruble currency and the Chinese Yuan currently make up less than 2% of global foreign currency holdings in central banks..... Great, but that was last year's reality. We're are in a dynamic situation since Feb 2022 and you can't forecast the 2023 reality based on what happened last year....
Political decisions made in 2023 trump all other forecast parameters defined by prior year static statistics. I've developed machine learning algorithms for decades and I can tell you that there is NOBODY out there who can predict what's going to happen tomorrow. That's why I use only a holistic approach that take into account geopolitical changes and existing data to adjust my parameters continuously in order to have an idea of what's going to happen.
Some people believe in magic and think that there is somebody out there with a crystal ball that can correctly forecast the future! If you don't have a complete set of parameters, there is no way you can correctly forecast the future and I don't know who can have a complete set of parameters in a dynamic system.... There are unknowns, there are known unknowns and there are unknown unknowns. That's the issue with forecasting. "
I think it 's an occasional bug in SS. And I do agree, 'N' but it does appear, given past predictions, that BOOM has a special tea cup! Me? I use a dart board!
I have a problem with BOOM's 100 Million barrels demand per day and the USD.
This figure represents the global daily production in all countries and not the global volume exchanged with other countries that require the use of a foreign currency (USD, GBP, Yen, Euro).
Not all transactions are settled in USD. E.g: Iran was kicked out of SWIFT and still sells more than 3 million barrels per day. It also consumes its own oil. The same is true for Russia and Venezuela. Are those volumes being taken into account?
It also includes the daily production that ends up in storage meaning zero transactions involved.
It also includes the internal consumption.
Example: Saudi Arabia may produce 12 mbpd, stores 3 mbpd and consumes 3 mbpd. I am not sure that they need USD transactions in order to consume their own oil internally. They'll later sell the stored oil in Yuhan/Euro/USD/GBP and even in Kenyan Shilling to name a few.
The way I analyze the de-dollarization impact on the USD is by tracking which country is instructing its people to avoid the USD (this is more holistic) - there are already a couple that publicly stated their intent, starting with Indonesia that fired the shot during the G20 meeting last year. 90% of their reserves are going to be in currencies other than the USD and MasterCard/VISA are going to be phased out. And this is a big economy!
I am tracking countries that have decided to dump the USD in their transactions with other countries: eg. India does not even produce oil for export, but they have decided to use Rupees to trade with 18 countries and more are going to join. They have an economy of $8 Trillion in PPP, meaning that their trade with foreign countries is huge even compared to those countries that produce oil. No GCC country has the economic weight of India and they sell tons of oil per day.
ASEAN countries do not produce oil for export, only for internal consumption since the volume is limited. BUT, the trade volume among the 10 members is ~$600 Billion per year and they've decided that they'll NOT be using foreign currencies anymore for trade among member states!
Brazil and Argentina are working on trading in their currencies. Once that's ready, I bet all Latin American countries will follow their model.
Brazil and China ($150 billion yearly trade) are dumping the USD. With or without oil doesn't matter.
It's the global trade volume that hurts the USD.
Russia and China are the leaders of the movement!
Also note that investments are also being de-dollarized. It's not just trade. The Saudis have just invested 89 Billion Yuhan in a refinery in China and that's just the tip of the iceberg.
Another point being ignored by BOOM is that when you don't sell your oil in USD, you don't have to buy US treasury bonds - i.e US debt!!!!
For me facts and political will are more important than theoretical considerations.
I don't find the argument compelling that US $ transactions (and the Euro) cannot be replaced quickly just because the large volume they have presently relatively speaking. At least the 50-100 year timeframe seems like the other extreme in this regard, and things are happening faster than anybody could have imagined, and old tools are being discarded seems evident - they obviously don't work.
New systems are being put in place and who wants to wait 50+ years for this....I don't think we have that much time especially as you say if the bullies who think they are in control of fiscal matters by default continue to plunder, steal, and harm so many by choice to maintain their hegemony they once had and don't realize have already lost by virtue of their own choices. If faith is lost in a fiat currency, just because it is the "biggest" seems sort of meaningless - once faith is lost beyond the point of no-return, it can't be recovered.
So much high-energy flux has been released that previous concepts of financial transactions can be replaced on a dime I suspect because response to the harm is demanded in the here and now. I mean you trade your goods to me and I'll compensate in currency for which we both have faith. Why continue transactions in a fiat currency losing faith most rapidly? It seems pointless and just perpetuates currency for the sake of its scale....but if the harm is "off-the-scale" and the desire is to put an end to the harm, then truly it makes no sense to conduct transaction (even big ones) using fiat for which faith is rapidly diminishing day-by-day.
Of course there is uncertainty, but once momentum forms towards new and better ideas, the change becomes exponential and for good reason because truly the harmful hegemony is identified, and no longer respected and serious change and flux is upon us and there is no stopping it. Like a tsunami it will unstoppable. I believe we are in for a period of increasing acceleration towards new and better ideas and this will occur faster and on a much shorter time-frame than folks who ascribe to the system being replaced can contemplate.
But, that is just my reading of the "tea leaves" and probably biased by what I desire which is an end to the bully hegemony that has caused so much needless harm. Time will tell, but sadly I suspect neither you and I will be able to come back here in 50-100 years, so lets come back on one year and revisit this post.
One year from now is 4424 (April 4, 2024) and four days after that there is going to be a total eclipse of the Sun that runs through the heart of America. I plan on being in Buffalo on that day (4824) in the middle of the ribbon of the eclipse.
Respectfully,
BK
Things work until they don'! Although endings happen fast this Federal Reserve has lots of notes yet to play. The end is not today! Hahaha!
7% inflation for 12 years doesn't equal zero notes. :-)
https://rumble.com/v2efqzc-how-they-stole-our-money-and-wealth.html
You may or may not be aware of this. In any case, you need to be...
All other financial issues are peanut gallery gossip.
Peter - this is a post I have made at some other places, so let me make it hear. No offense meant.
~~~~
Rick - I'm thinking of cutting some cords on my Substack accounts - what you think - should I cut you off?
I appreciate your opinion on this even though sometimes it seems you have a hard time saying you could give a shit......and I appreciate that, so please take that into consideration if you respond if you do, but if you don't then I'll take that into consideration.
Ken
ps - I posted this at Ray's place and said I would cut & paste it, so to be true to my word that is what I'm doing.
Oh, just to be fair about it: https://20thcenturyray.substack.com/p/welcome-to-the-asylum
Alas, some sanity in all of these headline drama leads.