Your comment 'N' didn't appear here (I got the email) so I reproduce it now:
"The Russian Ruble currency and the Chinese Yuan currently make up less than 2% of global foreign currency holdings in central banks..... Great, but that was last year's reality. We're are in a dynamic situation since Feb 2022 and you can't forecast the 2023 reality based on what happened last year....
Political decisions made in 2023 trump all other forecast parameters defined by prior year static statistics. I've developed machine learning algorithms for decades and I can tell you that there is NOBODY out there who can predict what's going to happen tomorrow. That's why I use only a holistic approach that take into account geopolitical changes and existing data to adjust my parameters continuously in order to have an idea of what's going to happen.
Some people believe in magic and think that there is somebody out there with a crystal ball that can correctly forecast the future! If you don't have a complete set of parameters, there is no way you can correctly forecast the future and I don't know who can have a complete set of parameters in a dynamic system.... There are unknowns, there are known unknowns and there are unknown unknowns. That's the issue with forecasting. "
I think it 's an occasional bug in SS. And I do agree, 'N' but it does appear, given past predictions, that BOOM has a special tea cup! Me? I use a dart board!
Lately I've been trying to improve my sandbag cornhole playing skills, but there are some fellas and gals in the neighborhood play way better than I do presently, but I will practice and then I will compete to see if I got the skills.....but, it is true, one time out of the blue, the cornhole leader in town came to my deck area and beseeched me to play while my wife and I were up there, and I conceded and played and got to the 3rd round and then we were fixing to skunk the champs and the spell faded......that was fun!
Well, this is totally new to me Ken, never heard of it so I looked it up (always willing to learn new things). "Take alternating individual turns between the two opponents on one end until all 8 bags have been thrown. The team that earns the most points for a round will get the first throw in the following round. In the event that scores are tied in the round, the team that won the previous round will get the first throw."
Looks a lot of fun. We play West country 'Spoof' down here - it's good because it's played indoors due to our crappy weather. "Players hide between 0 and 3 disks within their hand and then take it in turns to try and guess the total number of disks held, taking it in turns to make the first call. A player that guesses correctly is eliminated from the game and a new round starts until only one is left and he's the winner"
You know what I think - in cornhole it is better to get the second throw versus the first and I appreciate any game that tries to balance things out. Now, I'm gonna have to look up the "Spoof"....but off the bat I like the name! Spoofing spooks is fun!
However, be it known or let it be known, a game that involves the body and the mind is the better right off the bat, so I'm thinking that "spoof" game is in need of a little body action to make it even better.
I have a problem with BOOM's 100 Million barrels demand per day and the USD.
This figure represents the global daily production in all countries and not the global volume exchanged with other countries that require the use of a foreign currency (USD, GBP, Yen, Euro).
Not all transactions are settled in USD. E.g: Iran was kicked out of SWIFT and still sells more than 3 million barrels per day. It also consumes its own oil. The same is true for Russia and Venezuela. Are those volumes being taken into account?
It also includes the daily production that ends up in storage meaning zero transactions involved.
It also includes the internal consumption.
Example: Saudi Arabia may produce 12 mbpd, stores 3 mbpd and consumes 3 mbpd. I am not sure that they need USD transactions in order to consume their own oil internally. They'll later sell the stored oil in Yuhan/Euro/USD/GBP and even in Kenyan Shilling to name a few.
The way I analyze the de-dollarization impact on the USD is by tracking which country is instructing its people to avoid the USD (this is more holistic) - there are already a couple that publicly stated their intent, starting with Indonesia that fired the shot during the G20 meeting last year. 90% of their reserves are going to be in currencies other than the USD and MasterCard/VISA are going to be phased out. And this is a big economy!
I am tracking countries that have decided to dump the USD in their transactions with other countries: eg. India does not even produce oil for export, but they have decided to use Rupees to trade with 18 countries and more are going to join. They have an economy of $8 Trillion in PPP, meaning that their trade with foreign countries is huge even compared to those countries that produce oil. No GCC country has the economic weight of India and they sell tons of oil per day.
ASEAN countries do not produce oil for export, only for internal consumption since the volume is limited. BUT, the trade volume among the 10 members is ~$600 Billion per year and they've decided that they'll NOT be using foreign currencies anymore for trade among member states!
Brazil and Argentina are working on trading in their currencies. Once that's ready, I bet all Latin American countries will follow their model.
Brazil and China ($150 billion yearly trade) are dumping the USD. With or without oil doesn't matter.
It's the global trade volume that hurts the USD.
Russia and China are the leaders of the movement!
Also note that investments are also being de-dollarized. It's not just trade. The Saudis have just invested 89 Billion Yuhan in a refinery in China and that's just the tip of the iceberg.
Another point being ignored by BOOM is that when you don't sell your oil in USD, you don't have to buy US treasury bonds - i.e US debt!!!!
For me facts and political will are more important than theoretical considerations.
Many thanks 'N' you have boggled my mind with your exact analysis and I am no expert. I have sent the link to BOOM and ask him to respond - come back if you don't hear.
NB: BOOM is in Australia so he is just waking up in and hour or two which should catch you before you go to bed!
"Brazil and Argentina are working on trading in their currencies. Once that's ready, I bet all Latin American countries will follow their model." - The balance of trade between those regions is awful. In the end China will dominate accumulating those currencies that have little trade value. Thus the region will end up even worse off in terms of stability. Much depends on how much energy China can extract from Russia as it takes over there.
Given Chinese demographics, the once factory nation is facing rapidly increasing production costs. They will need to make up for that.
Good point 'HH' - I missed that. China has an immediate population problem, and BOOM has already identified many nations with decreasing work- forces which means that immigration can be the only answer in the short term. And the corollary is the impact on pensions - follow the money?
Maybe TPTB in UK know this too which is why HMG are not acting to restrict the migration invasion? We all know they can stop it dead in a heartbeat - so there has to be another motive and that always comes down to money in the end.
If the workers are only in service sectors, not much future benefit. We can use only so many low skilled servants. But it helps to dissipate old wealth. Can anybody afford to live in London anymore?
Quite true, old retired guy! If Ed Dowd's book correct, the vaccines have affected a lot of middle aged corporate workers who have become disabled by the vaccines. And we saw what happened in Iraq when Bremmer eliminated all those of a political party except they were the ones who ran the grid and pumped the water, etc. In my work, you could tell the wiring harnesses done by real pros vs the less skilled. Properly done wraps made service easier but that does take skill and time. But the bean counters rarely understand those of skill need to train the new guys.
Gee, I can recall making myself unpopular when i would tell juniors that a particular solution would likely fail. They would insist it would work and I often had to explain why it might for a time but fail in service - because I had already tried the solution.
CHS and old farmers might really, really come back to haunt us. Takes time and skill to harness nature.
China and Russia are the ones driving those changes. It's part of a bigger plan.
When BRICS decided to dump the USD in 2014, they outlined the steps to follow.
The first step is for Global South countries to trade in local currencies - the volume doesn't matter. It's a training exercise before the match begins.
The second step is to conduct all trades (among Global South countries) in the new BRICS currency that is being set up. The first blueprint of the BRICS currency will be published this year during their summit in South Africa.
When the German chancellor visited Brazil and Argentina a couple of months ago, he was actually sent by Bidensky to convince them to sell their Leopard tanks and ammunition (German made) back to Germany. This was intended to to be sent to Ukraine pretending that they were from the German government.
Scholtz failed miserably because he doesn't understand the new geopolitical dynamics in play. Argentina is a BRICS candidate and Brazil is a BRICS country and they cannot antagonize Russia and China. They asked Scholtz to start a peace process in Ukraine and involve them. Cultural clash again!
I'll say it again 'N' you need to start your own geopolitical Substack - brilliant assessment - we all need your wisdom and it's too confined on my poor offering - let the world know. If you started - I could push you into 1,000s of subscribers - the world is hungry for your writing IMHO.
Setting up a parallel system might be useful in reforming the global trade system. While I think Brazil and India are very much a real future, India has been a difficult place to deploy outside capital. And if Brazil can get political stability, it might return to center stage. China has just recently reversed its business viewpoint, but still the threat of government, central control remains. Russia remains a work in progress to extract minerals and oil; not sure why their organic engineering skills are so poorly developed/used. Poor management?
But the US over the last 20 years has had its own management issues - on/off depending on who is in charge. Ignoring its own extractive industries in favor of financial engineering hasn't been wise. The capability to create the factory of the future is better in the US, yet there are not many Musks to lead the way. Instead the bright guys collect their ad revenue from entertainment which creates little. OTOH, the consumer has been king but in an aging society there are fewer consumers. The younger nations certainly have consumers but no money.
I gave up on the US ability to do anything good a long time ago. There is no need detailing the systemic failures that underpin the system here.
The Soviet Gorbachev at least tried hard his "Perestroika and Glasnost" redemption plan before the final crash in 1991. When you have a demented US president at this time in history, how can you hope for anything good? The Congress doesn't even care about who's really in charge these days! Millions of immigrants are pouring in from the southern borders when $120 billions are laundered to prop up "democracy" in Bandera Reich........
I do like the PM's observation, the Americans get things right after trying all the thinks that wouldn't work. If there is any sanity to the 24 election, the current incumbents won't return.
I don't find the argument compelling that US $ transactions (and the Euro) cannot be replaced quickly just because the large volume they have presently relatively speaking. At least the 50-100 year timeframe seems like the other extreme in this regard, and things are happening faster than anybody could have imagined, and old tools are being discarded seems evident - they obviously don't work.
New systems are being put in place and who wants to wait 50+ years for this....I don't think we have that much time especially as you say if the bullies who think they are in control of fiscal matters by default continue to plunder, steal, and harm so many by choice to maintain their hegemony they once had and don't realize have already lost by virtue of their own choices. If faith is lost in a fiat currency, just because it is the "biggest" seems sort of meaningless - once faith is lost beyond the point of no-return, it can't be recovered.
So much high-energy flux has been released that previous concepts of financial transactions can be replaced on a dime I suspect because response to the harm is demanded in the here and now. I mean you trade your goods to me and I'll compensate in currency for which we both have faith. Why continue transactions in a fiat currency losing faith most rapidly? It seems pointless and just perpetuates currency for the sake of its scale....but if the harm is "off-the-scale" and the desire is to put an end to the harm, then truly it makes no sense to conduct transaction (even big ones) using fiat for which faith is rapidly diminishing day-by-day.
Of course there is uncertainty, but once momentum forms towards new and better ideas, the change becomes exponential and for good reason because truly the harmful hegemony is identified, and no longer respected and serious change and flux is upon us and there is no stopping it. Like a tsunami it will unstoppable. I believe we are in for a period of increasing acceleration towards new and better ideas and this will occur faster and on a much shorter time-frame than folks who ascribe to the system being replaced can contemplate.
But, that is just my reading of the "tea leaves" and probably biased by what I desire which is an end to the bully hegemony that has caused so much needless harm. Time will tell, but sadly I suspect neither you and I will be able to come back here in 50-100 years, so lets come back on one year and revisit this post.
One year from now is 4424 (April 4, 2024) and four days after that there is going to be a total eclipse of the Sun that runs through the heart of America. I plan on being in Buffalo on that day (4824) in the middle of the ribbon of the eclipse.
So, yesterday the price of crude oil went up over 6% I guess after the reduction in supply per the ole supply-demand curve of economics 101. Today, just a day, the price of gold has gone up 1.84% as I type this....and two days a trend they do not make, but I think this sort of price movement speaks to how quickly change can happen.
And I say that even moreso given what just occurred when I tried to check the price of gold on the markets present.
Those of hegemony thinking are fixing to learn that there are others out there smarter than they are and who care about our loved ones more than they could imagine.
I say that with no ill will, but I say it as evidence and knowing that justice must be served and it will be - one way or the other.
Oh, a stunning assessment Ken, thank you so much for all you time and effort in helping us understand these crazy times and in my book you could well be right. I can't deny that events are moving fast, driven by instant Tech, perhaps we will all be squashed under this steamroller?
I think when Putin and Xi met, they had a meeting of the minds as only can happen when you share a common desire to protect those you govern in a vested manner.
Tis only the will of the People that can vest one to govern in my book.
Actually, the main problem with Western forecasters (geopolitical & financial) is that they don't want to understand the cultures of the people they're dealing with.
That's why they're almost always WRONG when dealing with Global South countries. Just look at the level of US military failures around the world since the end of WW II.
There are "experts" in anthropology in the US (academia) but that knowledge is never put into practice.
I was speechless when I heard in 2001 that George Bush was sending US troops in Afghanistan instead of special forces to fight ~400 "terrorists", a country known for defeating the Persians (neighbouring Iran), Alexander the Great of Macedonia, the British occupying neighbouring India (Pakistan was part of British India), the Soviets (1979-1989). If you know the history of such a ferocious tribal people, shouldn't you study what motivates them first before taking a chance?
How could a people with no industries defeat the USSR?
General McCrystal who was sent by Obama did not even know where Afghanistan was on the map before his appointment!
In 20 years (2001-2021) the US spent $2 Trillion on Afghanistan (I know most of that money ended up with BlackRock but that's another story), not in Afghanistan.
The Collective West is now hitting another cultural wall that they don't seem to understand - they'll be surprised.
When you insult the official of an Asian country for example, you're in trouble. They're very polite but!
You know why Biden hasn't being able to talk to XI recently? When the White House calls, nobody returns his call. This is because Biden insulted XI after a conversation when the MIC was still open!
Here you have it! The media will never report on such incidents but if you're following political events daily, geopolitical changes won't surprise you. All parameters are taken into account to produce what you see.
You are well informed 'N' and my Chinese readers confirm their adherence to polite and honest discourse - something that is often lost in the Western culture. I am assured that China does not have global ambitions but of course in the western zeitgeist that can only be the objective. We see others though the veil of our own world view and expect them to respond accordingly to (in the case of USA) - "the international rules-based order".
When the hegemon embeds its foreign policy based on "total spectrum dominance" we know that nothing good can come from it.
I am watching GB News now, as I write, reporting on the Trump fiasco in NYC - some good commentors are coming through and it will be the focus of my Letter this week.
Well - just goes to show you how quick opinion can change after the bully gets revealed for what the bully is....hapless and broke and full of debt. Criminal really if you think about it.....and so truly, why use the currency of a criminal when there are other options readily available on the dime or maybe I should say on the dollar coin from 1971-1978. That be Ike as in Eisenhower and did Ike E not give a warning when he departed from office - I think he did. I liked Ike even though I never met the fella.
I mean is it not JFK that probably was inspired by Ike in a way even though JFK came from the party of a bank-hating fella named Jackson whose party has been twisted into contradictions of itself one time too many? Sad how things unfolded, but Ike gave the warning and JFK tried to do something about it, but JFK got a bullet to the brain and the rest is history I reckon - history of hegemony gone down the wrong path.
I don't know about you, but I was born in 1965 and my gubment centrally been lying to me since the day I was born - I can't abide it anymore and I don't have 50 years for change - the time is NOW.
I'm boycotting youtube....truly I can't click the link....if I did, I'd deny myself, and I dont' want to do that anymore......
Hey - at my place I just posted some pictures of some coins - the resolution is not as a good as I prefer, but maybe the coins are losing resolution versus me losing my steady hand.....I'm not sure, but still - tis two gold coins I got and I will add these coins to memory of better times I know were there once and if they were there once then they can come back I believe - I believe that is so.....here is the link:
Holy-Moly that is a long article. I'll try to read it all but I read some of it and basically this is what I think.
Local commerce trumps it all because individuals with liberty will choose what currency to employ and it only makes sense to use local currency when the gubment has lost its mind. As if the gubment could think and not realize that all gubments are vested and that the gubment itself is transient whereas what the gubment is vested in is permanent - that is assuming humans don't go extinct which is a distinct possibility of any gubment thinks it has power over that which vested it in the first place.
So, the moral to the story typos and all - don't ever let the gubment get a mind of its own and think it is more important than that to which it is vested - The People!
Bottom line I think is if they think they can arrest folks for speaking their mind in the us of a, then they got another thing coming and it will be swift.
I say that fearlessly as a man with garden ambitions, but I also say that knowing my family and friends will back me up and they are seriously tough. Because you and I know there is nothing better than a good friend and poor or rich alike good friends are priceless. I have a lot of good friends, I have family, and some in my family are most fierce.
Out of respect for you I'll read it, but that link has so many ads they are annoying and detract from the place, but out of respect for you, I'll read it and then I'll get back to you.
Brilliant Bdev thank you - well found and so compact - it tells much of what I have been reading & writing over the years because I was aware of Aladdin and BlackRock's history. In fact I wrote about the September 16, 2019 'Repo' crisis, but some of the later stuff was new to me: https://austrianpeter.substack.com/p/a-perfect-storm-the-money-crisis?s=w
This is exceptional because in 7 mins it has saved me thousands of words which many would find boring anyway. It's very well done and I can use it in a future Letter. My youngest son manages the Tech at a wealth manager - he will be very interested.
I read hundreds of books when researching my own book, and among them Michael Lewis' 'Liars Poker', 'Flash Boys' and 'Boomerang', Andrew Sorkin's. 'Too Big to Fail', Hank Paulson with 'On the Brink', and Rogoff's 'This Time is Different'. Few really got down to the meat you have revealed in 7 mins!
Many thanks, I am indebted to you for bringing me up to date. But where to from here? Who owns Larry Fink? I'll leave that for next time :-)
Peter - this is a post I have made at some other places, so let me make it hear. No offense meant.
~~~~
Rick - I'm thinking of cutting some cords on my Substack accounts - what you think - should I cut you off?
I appreciate your opinion on this even though sometimes it seems you have a hard time saying you could give a shit......and I appreciate that, so please take that into consideration if you respond if you do, but if you don't then I'll take that into consideration.
Ken
ps - I posted this at Ray's place and said I would cut & paste it, so to be true to my word that is what I'm doing.
Hey I love that link Ken - my team over at The Burning Platform are going to love it! We call TBP a zoo and they are all monkeys in it. I love those guys - no holes barred. Thanks mate.
I'll leave you to work out with Rick. Please feel free to use our common bond here as you will - not offence is ever taken by me - I am too old in the tooth to bother and too many healed wounds! Life's like that.
Have a great day - I'm on the Red vino as I work though my emails late in the evening... and I love it!
Well, I can't deny part of what I wondered (selfishly of course) was whether the author would respond and that makes all the difference in the world to me being I'm a lover of talking across the table and you must know - I could talk your head off metaphorically speaking but is it not better to talk than to fight and haven't we already learned that lesson of history? I hope so.
I like both talking and playing games and I'll play just about any game you got to offer because I like to play and I play to win, but I know I don't win always, but who cares as long as you get to come back to play again......you know?
No worries Ken, I respect your position - the future is definitely in minimalism and the natural processes - it's where we will eventually end up anyway - so you are very well ahead. I shall be planting too, God willing.
Your comment 'N' didn't appear here (I got the email) so I reproduce it now:
"The Russian Ruble currency and the Chinese Yuan currently make up less than 2% of global foreign currency holdings in central banks..... Great, but that was last year's reality. We're are in a dynamic situation since Feb 2022 and you can't forecast the 2023 reality based on what happened last year....
Political decisions made in 2023 trump all other forecast parameters defined by prior year static statistics. I've developed machine learning algorithms for decades and I can tell you that there is NOBODY out there who can predict what's going to happen tomorrow. That's why I use only a holistic approach that take into account geopolitical changes and existing data to adjust my parameters continuously in order to have an idea of what's going to happen.
Some people believe in magic and think that there is somebody out there with a crystal ball that can correctly forecast the future! If you don't have a complete set of parameters, there is no way you can correctly forecast the future and I don't know who can have a complete set of parameters in a dynamic system.... There are unknowns, there are known unknowns and there are unknown unknowns. That's the issue with forecasting. "
I think it 's an occasional bug in SS. And I do agree, 'N' but it does appear, given past predictions, that BOOM has a special tea cup! Me? I use a dart board!
Lately I've been trying to improve my sandbag cornhole playing skills, but there are some fellas and gals in the neighborhood play way better than I do presently, but I will practice and then I will compete to see if I got the skills.....but, it is true, one time out of the blue, the cornhole leader in town came to my deck area and beseeched me to play while my wife and I were up there, and I conceded and played and got to the 3rd round and then we were fixing to skunk the champs and the spell faded......that was fun!
Well, this is totally new to me Ken, never heard of it so I looked it up (always willing to learn new things). "Take alternating individual turns between the two opponents on one end until all 8 bags have been thrown. The team that earns the most points for a round will get the first throw in the following round. In the event that scores are tied in the round, the team that won the previous round will get the first throw."
Looks a lot of fun. We play West country 'Spoof' down here - it's good because it's played indoors due to our crappy weather. "Players hide between 0 and 3 disks within their hand and then take it in turns to try and guess the total number of disks held, taking it in turns to make the first call. A player that guesses correctly is eliminated from the game and a new round starts until only one is left and he's the winner"
You know what I think - in cornhole it is better to get the second throw versus the first and I appreciate any game that tries to balance things out. Now, I'm gonna have to look up the "Spoof"....but off the bat I like the name! Spoofing spooks is fun!
However, be it known or let it be known, a game that involves the body and the mind is the better right off the bat, so I'm thinking that "spoof" game is in need of a little body action to make it even better.
Here are the official cornhole rules:
https://www.playcornhole.org/pages/rules
Ken
Thanks Ken - it's a fine game.
I have a problem with BOOM's 100 Million barrels demand per day and the USD.
This figure represents the global daily production in all countries and not the global volume exchanged with other countries that require the use of a foreign currency (USD, GBP, Yen, Euro).
Not all transactions are settled in USD. E.g: Iran was kicked out of SWIFT and still sells more than 3 million barrels per day. It also consumes its own oil. The same is true for Russia and Venezuela. Are those volumes being taken into account?
It also includes the daily production that ends up in storage meaning zero transactions involved.
It also includes the internal consumption.
Example: Saudi Arabia may produce 12 mbpd, stores 3 mbpd and consumes 3 mbpd. I am not sure that they need USD transactions in order to consume their own oil internally. They'll later sell the stored oil in Yuhan/Euro/USD/GBP and even in Kenyan Shilling to name a few.
The way I analyze the de-dollarization impact on the USD is by tracking which country is instructing its people to avoid the USD (this is more holistic) - there are already a couple that publicly stated their intent, starting with Indonesia that fired the shot during the G20 meeting last year. 90% of their reserves are going to be in currencies other than the USD and MasterCard/VISA are going to be phased out. And this is a big economy!
I am tracking countries that have decided to dump the USD in their transactions with other countries: eg. India does not even produce oil for export, but they have decided to use Rupees to trade with 18 countries and more are going to join. They have an economy of $8 Trillion in PPP, meaning that their trade with foreign countries is huge even compared to those countries that produce oil. No GCC country has the economic weight of India and they sell tons of oil per day.
ASEAN countries do not produce oil for export, only for internal consumption since the volume is limited. BUT, the trade volume among the 10 members is ~$600 Billion per year and they've decided that they'll NOT be using foreign currencies anymore for trade among member states!
Brazil and Argentina are working on trading in their currencies. Once that's ready, I bet all Latin American countries will follow their model.
Brazil and China ($150 billion yearly trade) are dumping the USD. With or without oil doesn't matter.
It's the global trade volume that hurts the USD.
Russia and China are the leaders of the movement!
Also note that investments are also being de-dollarized. It's not just trade. The Saudis have just invested 89 Billion Yuhan in a refinery in China and that's just the tip of the iceberg.
Another point being ignored by BOOM is that when you don't sell your oil in USD, you don't have to buy US treasury bonds - i.e US debt!!!!
For me facts and political will are more important than theoretical considerations.
Many thanks 'N' you have boggled my mind with your exact analysis and I am no expert. I have sent the link to BOOM and ask him to respond - come back if you don't hear.
NB: BOOM is in Australia so he is just waking up in and hour or two which should catch you before you go to bed!
Financial and geopolitical experts who ignore the below statement will be surprised by their forecasts.
"Change that hasn’t happened in 100 years is coming and we are driving this change together" – XI to Putin, March 2023
"Brazil and Argentina are working on trading in their currencies. Once that's ready, I bet all Latin American countries will follow their model." - The balance of trade between those regions is awful. In the end China will dominate accumulating those currencies that have little trade value. Thus the region will end up even worse off in terms of stability. Much depends on how much energy China can extract from Russia as it takes over there.
Given Chinese demographics, the once factory nation is facing rapidly increasing production costs. They will need to make up for that.
Good point 'HH' - I missed that. China has an immediate population problem, and BOOM has already identified many nations with decreasing work- forces which means that immigration can be the only answer in the short term. And the corollary is the impact on pensions - follow the money?
Maybe TPTB in UK know this too which is why HMG are not acting to restrict the migration invasion? We all know they can stop it dead in a heartbeat - so there has to be another motive and that always comes down to money in the end.
If the workers are only in service sectors, not much future benefit. We can use only so many low skilled servants. But it helps to dissipate old wealth. Can anybody afford to live in London anymore?
Quite 'HH' - only the useless banksters, entertainers, 'journalists', etc - the producers and doers are rapidly declining as CHS notes: http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2023/04/heres-how-well-have-labor-shortages-and.html
Quite true, old retired guy! If Ed Dowd's book correct, the vaccines have affected a lot of middle aged corporate workers who have become disabled by the vaccines. And we saw what happened in Iraq when Bremmer eliminated all those of a political party except they were the ones who ran the grid and pumped the water, etc. In my work, you could tell the wiring harnesses done by real pros vs the less skilled. Properly done wraps made service easier but that does take skill and time. But the bean counters rarely understand those of skill need to train the new guys.
Gee, I can recall making myself unpopular when i would tell juniors that a particular solution would likely fail. They would insist it would work and I often had to explain why it might for a time but fail in service - because I had already tried the solution.
CHS and old farmers might really, really come back to haunt us. Takes time and skill to harness nature.
Indeed 'HH' - if only meddling humans would leave nature to do her work we would have fewer problems and improved nutrition.
China and Russia are the ones driving those changes. It's part of a bigger plan.
When BRICS decided to dump the USD in 2014, they outlined the steps to follow.
The first step is for Global South countries to trade in local currencies - the volume doesn't matter. It's a training exercise before the match begins.
The second step is to conduct all trades (among Global South countries) in the new BRICS currency that is being set up. The first blueprint of the BRICS currency will be published this year during their summit in South Africa.
The BRICS portal is here http://infobrics.org/
When the German chancellor visited Brazil and Argentina a couple of months ago, he was actually sent by Bidensky to convince them to sell their Leopard tanks and ammunition (German made) back to Germany. This was intended to to be sent to Ukraine pretending that they were from the German government.
Scholtz failed miserably because he doesn't understand the new geopolitical dynamics in play. Argentina is a BRICS candidate and Brazil is a BRICS country and they cannot antagonize Russia and China. They asked Scholtz to start a peace process in Ukraine and involve them. Cultural clash again!
I'll say it again 'N' you need to start your own geopolitical Substack - brilliant assessment - we all need your wisdom and it's too confined on my poor offering - let the world know. If you started - I could push you into 1,000s of subscribers - the world is hungry for your writing IMHO.
Setting up a parallel system might be useful in reforming the global trade system. While I think Brazil and India are very much a real future, India has been a difficult place to deploy outside capital. And if Brazil can get political stability, it might return to center stage. China has just recently reversed its business viewpoint, but still the threat of government, central control remains. Russia remains a work in progress to extract minerals and oil; not sure why their organic engineering skills are so poorly developed/used. Poor management?
But the US over the last 20 years has had its own management issues - on/off depending on who is in charge. Ignoring its own extractive industries in favor of financial engineering hasn't been wise. The capability to create the factory of the future is better in the US, yet there are not many Musks to lead the way. Instead the bright guys collect their ad revenue from entertainment which creates little. OTOH, the consumer has been king but in an aging society there are fewer consumers. The younger nations certainly have consumers but no money.
I gave up on the US ability to do anything good a long time ago. There is no need detailing the systemic failures that underpin the system here.
The Soviet Gorbachev at least tried hard his "Perestroika and Glasnost" redemption plan before the final crash in 1991. When you have a demented US president at this time in history, how can you hope for anything good? The Congress doesn't even care about who's really in charge these days! Millions of immigrants are pouring in from the southern borders when $120 billions are laundered to prop up "democracy" in Bandera Reich........
I do like the PM's observation, the Americans get things right after trying all the thinks that wouldn't work. If there is any sanity to the 24 election, the current incumbents won't return.
I don't find the argument compelling that US $ transactions (and the Euro) cannot be replaced quickly just because the large volume they have presently relatively speaking. At least the 50-100 year timeframe seems like the other extreme in this regard, and things are happening faster than anybody could have imagined, and old tools are being discarded seems evident - they obviously don't work.
New systems are being put in place and who wants to wait 50+ years for this....I don't think we have that much time especially as you say if the bullies who think they are in control of fiscal matters by default continue to plunder, steal, and harm so many by choice to maintain their hegemony they once had and don't realize have already lost by virtue of their own choices. If faith is lost in a fiat currency, just because it is the "biggest" seems sort of meaningless - once faith is lost beyond the point of no-return, it can't be recovered.
So much high-energy flux has been released that previous concepts of financial transactions can be replaced on a dime I suspect because response to the harm is demanded in the here and now. I mean you trade your goods to me and I'll compensate in currency for which we both have faith. Why continue transactions in a fiat currency losing faith most rapidly? It seems pointless and just perpetuates currency for the sake of its scale....but if the harm is "off-the-scale" and the desire is to put an end to the harm, then truly it makes no sense to conduct transaction (even big ones) using fiat for which faith is rapidly diminishing day-by-day.
Of course there is uncertainty, but once momentum forms towards new and better ideas, the change becomes exponential and for good reason because truly the harmful hegemony is identified, and no longer respected and serious change and flux is upon us and there is no stopping it. Like a tsunami it will unstoppable. I believe we are in for a period of increasing acceleration towards new and better ideas and this will occur faster and on a much shorter time-frame than folks who ascribe to the system being replaced can contemplate.
But, that is just my reading of the "tea leaves" and probably biased by what I desire which is an end to the bully hegemony that has caused so much needless harm. Time will tell, but sadly I suspect neither you and I will be able to come back here in 50-100 years, so lets come back on one year and revisit this post.
One year from now is 4424 (April 4, 2024) and four days after that there is going to be a total eclipse of the Sun that runs through the heart of America. I plan on being in Buffalo on that day (4824) in the middle of the ribbon of the eclipse.
Respectfully,
BK
So, yesterday the price of crude oil went up over 6% I guess after the reduction in supply per the ole supply-demand curve of economics 101. Today, just a day, the price of gold has gone up 1.84% as I type this....and two days a trend they do not make, but I think this sort of price movement speaks to how quickly change can happen.
And I say that even moreso given what just occurred when I tried to check the price of gold on the markets present.
Those of hegemony thinking are fixing to learn that there are others out there smarter than they are and who care about our loved ones more than they could imagine.
I say that with no ill will, but I say it as evidence and knowing that justice must be served and it will be - one way or the other.
Indeed it will Ken. "God moves in a mysterious way, His wonders to perform; He plants his footsteps in the sea, And rides upon the storm."
We shall know them by their works.
Oh, a stunning assessment Ken, thank you so much for all you time and effort in helping us understand these crazy times and in my book you could well be right. I can't deny that events are moving fast, driven by instant Tech, perhaps we will all be squashed under this steamroller?
Better to be squashed in principle then to abide the ones already proven wrong.
I didn't see your comment. I would have just replied to it instead of adding another post (see above).
I think when Putin and Xi met, they had a meeting of the minds as only can happen when you share a common desire to protect those you govern in a vested manner.
Tis only the will of the People that can vest one to govern in my book.
Actually, the main problem with Western forecasters (geopolitical & financial) is that they don't want to understand the cultures of the people they're dealing with.
That's why they're almost always WRONG when dealing with Global South countries. Just look at the level of US military failures around the world since the end of WW II.
There are "experts" in anthropology in the US (academia) but that knowledge is never put into practice.
I was speechless when I heard in 2001 that George Bush was sending US troops in Afghanistan instead of special forces to fight ~400 "terrorists", a country known for defeating the Persians (neighbouring Iran), Alexander the Great of Macedonia, the British occupying neighbouring India (Pakistan was part of British India), the Soviets (1979-1989). If you know the history of such a ferocious tribal people, shouldn't you study what motivates them first before taking a chance?
How could a people with no industries defeat the USSR?
General McCrystal who was sent by Obama did not even know where Afghanistan was on the map before his appointment!
In 20 years (2001-2021) the US spent $2 Trillion on Afghanistan (I know most of that money ended up with BlackRock but that's another story), not in Afghanistan.
The Collective West is now hitting another cultural wall that they don't seem to understand - they'll be surprised.
When you insult the official of an Asian country for example, you're in trouble. They're very polite but!
You know why Biden hasn't being able to talk to XI recently? When the White House calls, nobody returns his call. This is because Biden insulted XI after a conversation when the MIC was still open!
Here you have it! The media will never report on such incidents but if you're following political events daily, geopolitical changes won't surprise you. All parameters are taken into account to produce what you see.
You are well informed 'N' and my Chinese readers confirm their adherence to polite and honest discourse - something that is often lost in the Western culture. I am assured that China does not have global ambitions but of course in the western zeitgeist that can only be the objective. We see others though the veil of our own world view and expect them to respond accordingly to (in the case of USA) - "the international rules-based order".
When the hegemon embeds its foreign policy based on "total spectrum dominance" we know that nothing good can come from it.
I am watching GB News now, as I write, reporting on the Trump fiasco in NYC - some good commentors are coming through and it will be the focus of my Letter this week.
Here you go.
Another cultural wall in Africa on the Bidensky administration vs Russia geopolitical chessboard!
Africa ‘All Out,’ 54-0, Against Joining Biden’s Proxy War on Russia
https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2023/04/04/africa-all-out-54-0-against-joining-bidens-proxy-war-on-russia/
Well - just goes to show you how quick opinion can change after the bully gets revealed for what the bully is....hapless and broke and full of debt. Criminal really if you think about it.....and so truly, why use the currency of a criminal when there are other options readily available on the dime or maybe I should say on the dollar coin from 1971-1978. That be Ike as in Eisenhower and did Ike E not give a warning when he departed from office - I think he did. I liked Ike even though I never met the fella.
I mean is it not JFK that probably was inspired by Ike in a way even though JFK came from the party of a bank-hating fella named Jackson whose party has been twisted into contradictions of itself one time too many? Sad how things unfolded, but Ike gave the warning and JFK tried to do something about it, but JFK got a bullet to the brain and the rest is history I reckon - history of hegemony gone down the wrong path.
I don't know about you, but I was born in 1965 and my gubment centrally been lying to me since the day I was born - I can't abide it anymore and I don't have 50 years for change - the time is NOW.
In was born in 1944, Ken and I can assure that nothing has changed - HMG.gov has always lied - they were born that way.
JFK – 1963: There is a Plot in this Country to Enslave every Man, Woman and Child
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https://i0.wp.com/www.elliswashingtonreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/image-13.png?w=519&ssl=1
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JFK – 1963: I Will Splinter the CIA into a Thousand of Pieces.
https://i0.wp.com/www.elliswashingtonreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/jfk-vs-cia-quote.jpg?w=624&ssl=1
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JFK - 1963: Unveiled Ruthless Conspiracy – Obvious to Some only since 2020!!!
https://i0.wp.com/www.elliswashingtonreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/image-14.png?w=287&ssl=1
Yes indeed Ken - the rulers rule only with the consent of the people but they always forget this and it leads them into insurrection in the end:
Enjoy a short break: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs
I'm boycotting youtube....truly I can't click the link....if I did, I'd deny myself, and I dont' want to do that anymore......
Hey - at my place I just posted some pictures of some coins - the resolution is not as a good as I prefer, but maybe the coins are losing resolution versus me losing my steady hand.....I'm not sure, but still - tis two gold coins I got and I will add these coins to memory of better times I know were there once and if they were there once then they can come back I believe - I believe that is so.....here is the link:
https://buffaloken.substack.com/p/monday-is-the-day
Scroll down and some coins are presented.
Ken
I don't blame you Ken, it's 90% crap anyway - but a few are actually instructive. However my team at TBP have a stunning analysis of how USA has been usurped by the Military/Intelligence/Complex. A read is worthwhile IMHO, and I would respect your critical analysis: https://www.theburningplatform.com/2023/03/06/people-behind-biden-announce-creation-of-formal-national-surveillance-state-yet-no-one-seems-bothered/
Holy-Moly that is a long article. I'll try to read it all but I read some of it and basically this is what I think.
Local commerce trumps it all because individuals with liberty will choose what currency to employ and it only makes sense to use local currency when the gubment has lost its mind. As if the gubment could think and not realize that all gubments are vested and that the gubment itself is transient whereas what the gubment is vested in is permanent - that is assuming humans don't go extinct which is a distinct possibility of any gubment thinks it has power over that which vested it in the first place.
So, the moral to the story typos and all - don't ever let the gubment get a mind of its own and think it is more important than that to which it is vested - The People!
Hey real quick on this, I think some reporting on this has already been presented here:
https://www.sott.net/article/478938-NewsReal-Trump-Says-US-Dead-as-Regime-Indicts-Him
I'll read the rest but I thought I'd share that.
Bottom line I think is if they think they can arrest folks for speaking their mind in the us of a, then they got another thing coming and it will be swift.
I say that fearlessly as a man with garden ambitions, but I also say that knowing my family and friends will back me up and they are seriously tough. Because you and I know there is nothing better than a good friend and poor or rich alike good friends are priceless. I have a lot of good friends, I have family, and some in my family are most fierce.
Out of respect for you I'll read it, but that link has so many ads they are annoying and detract from the place, but out of respect for you, I'll read it and then I'll get back to you.
Things work until they don'! Although endings happen fast this Federal Reserve has lots of notes yet to play. The end is not today! Hahaha!
7% inflation for 12 years doesn't equal zero notes. :-)
https://rumble.com/v2efqzc-how-they-stole-our-money-and-wealth.html
You may or may not be aware of this. In any case, you need to be...
All other financial issues are peanut gallery gossip.
Brilliant Bdev thank you - well found and so compact - it tells much of what I have been reading & writing over the years because I was aware of Aladdin and BlackRock's history. In fact I wrote about the September 16, 2019 'Repo' crisis, but some of the later stuff was new to me: https://austrianpeter.substack.com/p/a-perfect-storm-the-money-crisis?s=w
This is exceptional because in 7 mins it has saved me thousands of words which many would find boring anyway. It's very well done and I can use it in a future Letter. My youngest son manages the Tech at a wealth manager - he will be very interested.
I read hundreds of books when researching my own book, and among them Michael Lewis' 'Liars Poker', 'Flash Boys' and 'Boomerang', Andrew Sorkin's. 'Too Big to Fail', Hank Paulson with 'On the Brink', and Rogoff's 'This Time is Different'. Few really got down to the meat you have revealed in 7 mins!
Many thanks, I am indebted to you for bringing me up to date. But where to from here? Who owns Larry Fink? I'll leave that for next time :-)
Cheers
AP
Peter - this is a post I have made at some other places, so let me make it hear. No offense meant.
~~~~
Rick - I'm thinking of cutting some cords on my Substack accounts - what you think - should I cut you off?
I appreciate your opinion on this even though sometimes it seems you have a hard time saying you could give a shit......and I appreciate that, so please take that into consideration if you respond if you do, but if you don't then I'll take that into consideration.
Ken
ps - I posted this at Ray's place and said I would cut & paste it, so to be true to my word that is what I'm doing.
Oh, just to be fair about it: https://20thcenturyray.substack.com/p/welcome-to-the-asylum
Hey I love that link Ken - my team over at The Burning Platform are going to love it! We call TBP a zoo and they are all monkeys in it. I love those guys - no holes barred. Thanks mate.
I'll leave you to work out with Rick. Please feel free to use our common bond here as you will - not offence is ever taken by me - I am too old in the tooth to bother and too many healed wounds! Life's like that.
Have a great day - I'm on the Red vino as I work though my emails late in the evening... and I love it!
Well, I can't deny part of what I wondered (selfishly of course) was whether the author would respond and that makes all the difference in the world to me being I'm a lover of talking across the table and you must know - I could talk your head off metaphorically speaking but is it not better to talk than to fight and haven't we already learned that lesson of history? I hope so.
I like both talking and playing games and I'll play just about any game you got to offer because I like to play and I play to win, but I know I don't win always, but who cares as long as you get to come back to play again......you know?
Then you will enjoy this book, Ken - I found it fascinating:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Finite-Infinite-Games-James-Carse/dp/1476731713
I don't feel like reading any more books P&S.
I don't play games with 0 nor infinity as if I could if I wanted to....
I'd rather plant a seed and then let uncertainty decide one way or the other...
I think uncertainty favors principle and my two principles are founded on virtue and liberty.
They are the trees of my life.
I don't feel like reading any more books.
With respect,
Ken
No worries Ken, I respect your position - the future is definitely in minimalism and the natural processes - it's where we will eventually end up anyway - so you are very well ahead. I shall be planting too, God willing.
Alas, some sanity in all of these headline drama leads.