The fundamental resource is energy, in the case of post WW-2 industrial society, oil is the fundamental resource. Economic analyses which overlook the fundamental might make fair estimates when the fundamental resource is not limited, as in the 1960s, for instance, but when the fundamental resource is tipped over into decline, and theories presume it to be always-adequate, predictions will diverge widely from reality.
We are indeed on the same page. But underneath it all is the western financial system based on bond finance which relies on a willing buyer. This works fine in an expanding economy but is destined to collapse in a stagnant or declining economy. This requires a new paradigm, one option is discussed by BOOM here, which he calls Quantitative Boosting (QB): https://boomfinanceandeconomics.wordpress.com/2019/12/15/boom-as-at-15th-december-2019/
Maybe a slow steady decline of usage over 50 – 100 years will happen. But “collapse” is Armageddon talk. BOOM cannot see any scenario whereby that would happen.
~
Well, maybe BOOM can't see any scenario(s), but I sure as hell can. I'm not advocating for it, I'm just saying it ought not be discounted and a distinct possibility, and more than likely it is a non-trivial possibility. For example, lets just say hypothetically within the US of A there was dispute over election results and the dispute was serious and some states presently in the "Union" began to contemplate departure - now if that happened, I suspect the US dollar would be changed forever and while it might not collapse, it could happen way quicker than 50 - 100 years, so please - give me a break on that.
Here is the difference in views that we have I reckon in regards to timing. I think when levels of flux reach a pinnacle, then rapid change inevitably occurs and I believe awareness is increasing at an exponential level in regards to nefarious activity (can anybody say - "fire" in Hawaii"). With all the truly needless flux so many have been unwillingly subjected to intentionally, those performing the nefarious activities willfully are going to be hunt down and exterminated in an expedient fashion - either that or all will be dead - both us and them. The old systems and the old ideas behind them have PROVEN themselves to put it simple: WRONG. Wrong and harmful and the time is upon us.
50-100 years is a hell of along time when flux has gone over the top and the scale of change in the air is unprecedented as is the "level of threat" to citizens and peasants alike, and so I suspect our collective future will essentially be decided based on decisions made individually in response to this threat to all humanity, and I suspect in a year or so things will be much different than they are today - much different assuming we are still breathing. I have hope we will be, but I've let go of both my ego as well as the strings of old ideas proven wrong.
So, in an ironic sort of way, those who consider themselves "elite" would be advised to stop some of their elitist brethren who are committing crimes against humanity - if they don't, then I hope the peasants put an end to all these elitist.
It is "ironic" because the only way it may take as long as BOOM conjectures on timing (50-100 years is a LONG time and formed out of bias of being entrenched in the old system), will be if those who think they are "elite" stop the ones who are causing all of this harm willful?
What do you think the chances are of that?
As you say below - get your house in order and be self-reliant - the elitist are criminal and they are not to be trusted more then they can be thrown on a pile of harmful ideas proven wrong.
Thanks Ken, wise words indeed. Yes, the elites are so powerful now - owning everything that my defence is a garden to produce food (the essence of survival) and my smallholding would have done the job well.
So in SA I shall do the same and form a self-reliant community around a water source, free solar energy, shelter and a simple but a comfortable life off-grid. "From the bottom of Maslow's hierarchy of needs upwards, the needs are: physiological, safety, love and belonging, esteem and self- actualization. This five-stage model can be divided into deficiency needs and growth needs." https://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html
I studied this in the 1990s - and learned my lesson.
It is the interconnection between these various stories that I find interesting, BRICS+ especially so as it shows a change in world politics. Maybe a slow change, to begin with but a slow move from the US/dollar and UN dominated world.
The UN, based in the USA of course, has, for decades, tried to get direct access to funding ie through the FTT (Tobin Tax) and now through its failing climate change scam. It is interesting that there doesn't seem to be a reference to Net Zero or other climate scams in the BRICS+ documentation, unless I've missed something. Coal is still king in the BRICS+ world. Is it time for us to pump the water out and open up our coal mines again? I think so.
In the Global South, Greg they are already using coal extensively. You can view my Part 2 about BRICS last Saturday (Paywalled) here (my archive), FOC because I owe a great debt to my colleagues at The Burning Platform:
Thank you for cutting thru the fog of the BRICS issue. As I have said all along "The central bankers will determine the world's most used currency, and nobody else." These guys fund both sides of all modern wars and do most anything they want. Every one of the BRICS have a central bank, not much more to say here, but thank you for posting, shared.
Thanks Bert - you are of course on target - the Banksters are indeed in total control, but only as far as their 'money' is the pivot. My Plan 'B' calls for an off-grid, local economic model which is outside the etherial control of the Banksters.
We don't need their crappy 'money' to live, although they will do their best to convince us we do, for obvious reasons. We might feel like a man who has worked all his life to make lots of money, only to find out that the money is all fake. "The wealth of the rich is his fortified city; It is like a protective wall in his imagination." [Proverbs 18:11]
This is the essence of the oligarchs' fears - because they know in their hearts that their 'wealth' is fake and will soon return from whence it came. They are now fighting, to not only preserve what they have, but to find another system that will validate their fake wealth. It won't work this time IMHO. QE was the last hurrah.
You, like myself, Bert have been blessed with wise parents. I have recently reflected on my own life-course from birth, childhood, (mad adolescence) and finally to settle down in 1968 (at 24) and embark on building a family.
27 years later in 1995, with the 4 sprogs having fled the nest, I had a life-changing experience (Mid-life crisis?) and followed my heart to sea and the wide world. I have lived a bifurcated life - 50 years traditional, 28 years so far, exceptional. I found paradise in 1999 (Cape Town) but my creator required me to suffer 14 years penal servitude in UK until now He tells me I am released from my prison to carry out His mission in South Africa. I can't wait LOL.
You know you have my respect, good wishes, and prayers for your happiness in your new home. You have much courage to make such a move. Life is an adventure, enjoy it.
Name ANYTHING substantive the "BRICS" have ever done. They are an inherent contradiction. Population collapsing Communist dictatorship, PRC; vibrant if warty democracy, even bigger (India) who are at semi-war with each other; Brazil a democracy that swings right and left, the country of the future that always will be; RUS a gas station with Nukes; South Afrika? (you've seen what I've posted here about them China). Now the scum Saudis, all the way down to Ethiopia. Ethiopia? I loved the Lion of Judah, Haile Selassie, but really. These countries will NEVER do a thing but may benefit when the dollar implodes of it's own volition
As I said to BOOM - the choice is Hobson's. Either we are ruled by the US CIA State Mafia (and WEF) with the illusion of 'freedom' or we succumb to a totalitarian dictatorship ruled by a despotic social credit system. But it doesn't have to be this way which is why I am pursuing my own Plan 'B': https://austrianpeter.substack.com/p/progressing-plan-b-a-quarterly-review?s=w
In order to avoid top-down plutocracy I am required to move off-grid and be self-sufficient which is why I am going south at the end of this year.
The fundamental resource is energy, in the case of post WW-2 industrial society, oil is the fundamental resource. Economic analyses which overlook the fundamental might make fair estimates when the fundamental resource is not limited, as in the 1960s, for instance, but when the fundamental resource is tipped over into decline, and theories presume it to be always-adequate, predictions will diverge widely from reality.
See here, please: https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/
Thanks John - all good, I have followed Tim since I read his book in 2013 and he was gracious enough to allow me to quote him in the Epilogue of my book. I also quoted his excellent description of EROEI here: https://austrianpeter.substack.com/p/the-financial-jigsaw-part-2-the-end?s=w
We are indeed on the same page. But underneath it all is the western financial system based on bond finance which relies on a willing buyer. This works fine in an expanding economy but is destined to collapse in a stagnant or declining economy. This requires a new paradigm, one option is discussed by BOOM here, which he calls Quantitative Boosting (QB): https://boomfinanceandeconomics.wordpress.com/2019/12/15/boom-as-at-15th-december-2019/
The article states:
~
Maybe a slow steady decline of usage over 50 – 100 years will happen. But “collapse” is Armageddon talk. BOOM cannot see any scenario whereby that would happen.
~
Well, maybe BOOM can't see any scenario(s), but I sure as hell can. I'm not advocating for it, I'm just saying it ought not be discounted and a distinct possibility, and more than likely it is a non-trivial possibility. For example, lets just say hypothetically within the US of A there was dispute over election results and the dispute was serious and some states presently in the "Union" began to contemplate departure - now if that happened, I suspect the US dollar would be changed forever and while it might not collapse, it could happen way quicker than 50 - 100 years, so please - give me a break on that.
~
BK
The point is Ken, that the bulk of USD are not created in USA - they are outside US control. It's called the Eurodollar market and it's vast:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/eurodollar.asp
I know, it confuses the hell out of most people but it really is worth reading and is why BOOM says what he does.
Stay the course Big Fella! "Beans Meanz Heinz!" LOL
I've skimmed the article.
Here is the difference in views that we have I reckon in regards to timing. I think when levels of flux reach a pinnacle, then rapid change inevitably occurs and I believe awareness is increasing at an exponential level in regards to nefarious activity (can anybody say - "fire" in Hawaii"). With all the truly needless flux so many have been unwillingly subjected to intentionally, those performing the nefarious activities willfully are going to be hunt down and exterminated in an expedient fashion - either that or all will be dead - both us and them. The old systems and the old ideas behind them have PROVEN themselves to put it simple: WRONG. Wrong and harmful and the time is upon us.
50-100 years is a hell of along time when flux has gone over the top and the scale of change in the air is unprecedented as is the "level of threat" to citizens and peasants alike, and so I suspect our collective future will essentially be decided based on decisions made individually in response to this threat to all humanity, and I suspect in a year or so things will be much different than they are today - much different assuming we are still breathing. I have hope we will be, but I've let go of both my ego as well as the strings of old ideas proven wrong.
Ken
So, in an ironic sort of way, those who consider themselves "elite" would be advised to stop some of their elitist brethren who are committing crimes against humanity - if they don't, then I hope the peasants put an end to all these elitist.
It is "ironic" because the only way it may take as long as BOOM conjectures on timing (50-100 years is a LONG time and formed out of bias of being entrenched in the old system), will be if those who think they are "elite" stop the ones who are causing all of this harm willful?
What do you think the chances are of that?
As you say below - get your house in order and be self-reliant - the elitist are criminal and they are not to be trusted more then they can be thrown on a pile of harmful ideas proven wrong.
We know.
May the best ideas prevail
BK
Thanks Ken, wise words indeed. Yes, the elites are so powerful now - owning everything that my defence is a garden to produce food (the essence of survival) and my smallholding would have done the job well.
So in SA I shall do the same and form a self-reliant community around a water source, free solar energy, shelter and a simple but a comfortable life off-grid. "From the bottom of Maslow's hierarchy of needs upwards, the needs are: physiological, safety, love and belonging, esteem and self- actualization. This five-stage model can be divided into deficiency needs and growth needs." https://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html
I studied this in the 1990s - and learned my lesson.
Blessings Ken and much love
AP
It is the interconnection between these various stories that I find interesting, BRICS+ especially so as it shows a change in world politics. Maybe a slow change, to begin with but a slow move from the US/dollar and UN dominated world.
The UN, based in the USA of course, has, for decades, tried to get direct access to funding ie through the FTT (Tobin Tax) and now through its failing climate change scam. It is interesting that there doesn't seem to be a reference to Net Zero or other climate scams in the BRICS+ documentation, unless I've missed something. Coal is still king in the BRICS+ world. Is it time for us to pump the water out and open up our coal mines again? I think so.
In the Global South, Greg they are already using coal extensively. You can view my Part 2 about BRICS last Saturday (Paywalled) here (my archive), FOC because I owe a great debt to my colleagues at The Burning Platform:
https://www.theburningplatform.com/author/austrian-peter/
Thank you for cutting thru the fog of the BRICS issue. As I have said all along "The central bankers will determine the world's most used currency, and nobody else." These guys fund both sides of all modern wars and do most anything they want. Every one of the BRICS have a central bank, not much more to say here, but thank you for posting, shared.
Thanks Bert - you are of course on target - the Banksters are indeed in total control, but only as far as their 'money' is the pivot. My Plan 'B' calls for an off-grid, local economic model which is outside the etherial control of the Banksters.
We don't need their crappy 'money' to live, although they will do their best to convince us we do, for obvious reasons. We might feel like a man who has worked all his life to make lots of money, only to find out that the money is all fake. "The wealth of the rich is his fortified city; It is like a protective wall in his imagination." [Proverbs 18:11]
This is the essence of the oligarchs' fears - because they know in their hearts that their 'wealth' is fake and will soon return from whence it came. They are now fighting, to not only preserve what they have, but to find another system that will validate their fake wealth. It won't work this time IMHO. QE was the last hurrah.
QED
Blessings
AP
My Father was a devout Christian, one of his best sayings was, “there is no wallet pocket on a coffin” I understood what he said then and now.
You, like myself, Bert have been blessed with wise parents. I have recently reflected on my own life-course from birth, childhood, (mad adolescence) and finally to settle down in 1968 (at 24) and embark on building a family.
27 years later in 1995, with the 4 sprogs having fled the nest, I had a life-changing experience (Mid-life crisis?) and followed my heart to sea and the wide world. I have lived a bifurcated life - 50 years traditional, 28 years so far, exceptional. I found paradise in 1999 (Cape Town) but my creator required me to suffer 14 years penal servitude in UK until now He tells me I am released from my prison to carry out His mission in South Africa. I can't wait LOL.
Blessings
AP
You know you have my respect, good wishes, and prayers for your happiness in your new home. You have much courage to make such a move. Life is an adventure, enjoy it.
Thank you Bert for your blessings. I have no fear as I adventure forth because my Creator walks with me every minute. https://www.onlythebible.com/Poems/Footprints-in-the-Sand-Poem.html
Blessings
AP
Thank you for being here for me Bert. I am so humbled by your generosity of spirit and of my friends around me also - I know they are there in SA too.
United we stand.
Name ANYTHING substantive the "BRICS" have ever done. They are an inherent contradiction. Population collapsing Communist dictatorship, PRC; vibrant if warty democracy, even bigger (India) who are at semi-war with each other; Brazil a democracy that swings right and left, the country of the future that always will be; RUS a gas station with Nukes; South Afrika? (you've seen what I've posted here about them China). Now the scum Saudis, all the way down to Ethiopia. Ethiopia? I loved the Lion of Judah, Haile Selassie, but really. These countries will NEVER do a thing but may benefit when the dollar implodes of it's own volition
As I said to BOOM - the choice is Hobson's. Either we are ruled by the US CIA State Mafia (and WEF) with the illusion of 'freedom' or we succumb to a totalitarian dictatorship ruled by a despotic social credit system. But it doesn't have to be this way which is why I am pursuing my own Plan 'B': https://austrianpeter.substack.com/p/progressing-plan-b-a-quarterly-review?s=w
In order to avoid top-down plutocracy I am required to move off-grid and be self-sufficient which is why I am going south at the end of this year.
https://www.theburningplatform.com/author/austrian-peter/