HMG Autumn Statement (MTFP) – Post-mortem: Review & Analysis - SPECIAL REPORT - Letter from Great Britain - [11-24-22]
"If I don't know - I can't act" – Knowledge of The Word is Spiritual Power
THOUGHT FOR DAY: Neil Oliver asks Britain: "What will it take before the rest of this country awakens to the realisation that we are being taken for fools?" Neil crucifies Hunt and just about everything else that's going wrong with what's left of our suffering country and the Tory Party which has failed us for 12 years. Dire, grim, dismal: all words used to describe the UK’s economic situation after Thursday’s Autumn Statement:
BTW – why are they called 'Tories'? "As a political term, ‘Tory’ was an insult derived from the Middle Irish word tóraidhe, modern Irish tóraí, meaning 'outlaw' or "robber" from the Irish word tóir, meaning "pursuit" since outlaws were "pursued men" that entered English politics during the reign of Charles II with the Exclusion Bill crisis 1678-81” A very appropriate epithet, don't you think, with another Charles on the throne?
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MY BREAKING NEWS: How the Bank of England (BoE) broke HM Government in September 2022: The brutal demise of the Truss administration following their mini-budget has been widely attributed to the market’s reaction, which of course it was, BUT behind the market sit the Banksters. The market’s behaviour was a rational response to the actions and inactions of the BoE, before, during and after the mini-budget.
The following preview by Jon Moynihan explains in detail how the BoE scuppered the Truss government and ushered in the unelected WEF duo of Sunak & Hunt. Yes, once again it was the Banksters wot did it! https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/december-january-2023/how-the-bank-broke-the-government/
SUMMARY OF HUNT'S MAIN POINTS; my emphasis and [comments in sq. brackets]. Britain faces the biggest hit to living standards on record as Jeremy Hunt set out £30bn of delayed spending cuts and £25bn of backdated tax increases that laid bare the country’s dire economic predicament.
Underlining the fragility of the economy, the Chancellor pushed back the fresh austerity measures until after the next election amid evidence that higher energy bills and the worst inflation in four decades will cause a protracted recession, a jump in unemployment of (est.) 500,000 and a lost decade for living standards.
In a sombre assessment of the economic crisis, the independent 'Office for Budget Responsibility' (OBR) said the biggest two-year squeeze since modern records has begun – a cumulative drop of 7% – would wipe out the previous eight years of [negative] growth in living standards and return them to their 2014 level by 2024 [actually 2010 level at best]. The OBR said the economy had just entered a recession that would last for more than a year and lead to the economy shrinking by 1.4% in 2023. [Meaning the 'D' word?]
Hunt extended the freeze on tax allowances [to 2028!], reduced the threshold for paying the 45% rate of income tax to £125,100, gave local authorities the go-ahead to raise council tax [by 5%], and raised more from capital gains tax and inheritance tax as part of a plan to convince the financial markets [aka Banksters] of the government’s intention to reduce its budget deficit.
The head of one of the UK’s leading think-tank questioned whether some of the planned austerity would ever happen. Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said: “The fiscal tightening is heavily back-loaded, with the vast bulk of spending cuts in particular pencilled in for after April 2025. Given the profound uncertainty around the outlook, and the potential economic and social costs of an unnecessarily large up-front fiscal tightening, this is probably the right choice, on balance. But delaying all of the difficult decisions until after the next general election does cast doubt on the credibility of these plans. The tight spending plans post-2025, in particular, may stretch credulity.”
Labour said wages, adjusted for inflation, were lower in 2022 than when the Conservatives came to power in 2010 – a record unmatched since the mid-19th century. The mess we are in is not just a result of 12 weeks of Conservative chaos, but 12 years of Conservative economic failure: growth dismal; investment down; wages squeezed; public services crumbling. Reality will feel very tough indeed, as unemployment and energy bills rise, while average incomes fall by £1,700 over this year and next.
The OBR said its measure of living standards – real household disposable income – would fall by 4.3% in the current financial year, the biggest drop since modern records began in the mid-1950s. “That is followed by the second largest fall in 2023-24 at 2.8%. This would be only the third time since 1956-57 that real household disposable income per person has fallen for two consecutive fiscal years – the last time this happened was in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. And the 7.1% cumulative fall from 2021-22 to 2023-24 is large enough to take real household disposable income per person to its lowest since 2013-14.” [NOTE: this is an average; the UK has a very high level of income inequality compared to other developed countries. Check out: the real statistics: https://equalitytrust.org.uk/scale-economic-inequality-uk
COMBINE THE ABOVE with an assessment of current global financial conditions and we see something quite unique - there is no precedent in history - which I believe is a result of the extraordinary (never been done before) excess money printing over the last 14 years (i.e. QE); courtesy of the Federal Reserve and followed by every other CB and his dog.
Bond markets today are convinced that inflation is going to fall hard with higher 'real rates' (which are negative in UK at –ve7.9%), a weaker global economy, a stronger US dollar (weaker GBP), and a massive deflationary impulse from slowing global trade going into 2023. Keep an eye on global transport costs: Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
But there are odd things happening in the GB & US labour markets which are extremely tight when we should be seeing unemployment rising. Perhaps the 7 million odd economically inactive workers, (23% of the GB workforce!), many languishing on PPI, has something to do with it? This doesn’t usually happen with a slowing global economy.
There is always a temptation to view current events in an historical context which offers a degree of comfort that the future will not be as disturbing as it appears. Are we witnessing a period analogous to the 1920s or the 1970s? It seems to me that we are starting down an economic and global financial track as geopolitical traumas birth a very new multipolar world. Last week's G20 summit indicated that this decade will indeed be very different from anything history can teach us. https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/18477
DETAILS OF COST-OF-LIVING SUPPORT 2023/4 (aka equates to 'Universal Basic Income' UBI) – [this is specifically for UK local readers]: Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced tax changes, pension rises and help for those affected by the Cost of Living crisis in the Autumn Statement delivered in the House of Commons on November 17. Millions of Brits look set to pay increased income tax by stealth, (i.e. by freezing the tax free allowance until 2028). Also there are large cuts to tax-free allowances for capital gains; but we all know how the accountants get around this 'adjustment'.
However there is some reprieve for pensioners, as Hunt has indeed kept his word regarding his Party's manifesto commitment to keep the pensions triple lock in place. The 'triple lock rule', which applies to the state pension, simply means state pensions must rise each year in line with the highest of three possible figures: CPI inflation; average earnings; or 2.5% pa. For ten years or so pensions have risen by the minimum 2.5% pa because inflation and wage rises have been minimal. Now it's time to fess up and pay up, but it doesn't preclude a 'U' turn by the time we get to April 2023 if the bottom has fallen out of the British economy by then.
There will also be relief for those on 'welfare benefits' and tax credits, as these will be rising in line with 10.1%. He also announced an 'Energy Price Guarantee' which will cap the price paid by households on each unit of energy. HMG calculate that this will save the average UK household £500 throughout 2023-2024.
HERE is a round-up of welfare 'benefits' on the Government's website: but I must reiterate that although the government mislabels 'insurance claims' as 'welfare benefits' – if you think about it for a micro second, the truth is that any government is in fact a massive, mega-insurance company!
We are forced to pay 'premiums' in the form of sundry 'taxes' and make claims as necessary. HMG even acknowledge this paradigm by labelling 'claims' as 'National Insurance' - and even allocate each Brit a unique 'National Insurance Number (NINO) at birth. In summary, it's one massive mafia-style protection racket – an insurance fraud by any other name - because the pay-outs are variable and subject to the whims of unpredictable politicians. Nobody would voluntarily buy insurance on these terms!
Cost of Living Payments: An additional £900 Cost of Living Payment will be made to more than 8 million households across the UK in 2023-24. If you are in receipt of the following household benefits, then you can expect the extra sum:
· Universal Credit
· Income-based Jobseekers Allowance
· Income-related Employment and Support Allowance
· Income Support
· Pension Credit
· Working Tax Credit
· Child Tax Credit
The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) say £900 will be paid in instalments for 2023/4, but the precise details are yet to be announced. The payment will be tax-free, and will not count towards the benefit cap.
Disability Cost of Living Payments: Over 6 million people who currently receive non-means-tested disability benefits will also receive an added £150 'Disability Cost of Living Payment'. Those eligible for the payment will be in receipt of the following:
· Disability Living Allowance
· Personal Independence Payment
· Attendance Allowance
· Scottish Disability Benefits
· Armed Forces Independence Payment
· Constant Attendance Allowance
· War Pension Mobility Supplement
Cost of Living Payments for pensioners: 8 million pension households will receive an addition £300 'Cost of Living payment' during 2023/24. This extra payment will be in addition to the means-tested benefit and disability benefit payments. The DWP are yet to announce when these payments will be made and will be tax-free and not impact any existing benefits.
National Living Wage: From April 1, 2023, the following rises in the National Living Wage will take effect: Age 23+: £9.50/hr to £10.42/hr - equal to £1,600pa rise for those in full time work. Age 21 - 22: £9.18/hr - £10.18/hr. Age 18 - 20: £6.83/hr - £7.49/hr. Age 17 and under, including apprentices: £4.81/hr - £5.28/hr
‘Benefits’ uprating: A message on HMG website says: "The Government is protecting the most vulnerable in society, many of whom face the biggest challenge making their incomes stretch, by increasing benefits in line with inflation. This means that they will rise by September Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation – 10.1%".
"Uprating working age and disability benefits will cost £11 billion next year. More than 10 million working age families will see their benefit payments rise from April 2023 and also support this winter for people who need help now, including discounted energy bills and cost of living payments as announced in May 2022. Benefits are fully devolved in Northern Ireland, so it is for the Northern Ireland Executive to decide uprating in Northern Ireland."
Pension uprating: The Government said: "Nearly 12 million pensioners in Great Britain will benefit from a 10.1% increase to their State Pension in April 2023 under the triple lock. This is worth over £870 next year on average. Per week: a full basic State Pension will increase from £141.85 to £156.20, and the new State Pension will increase from £185.15 to £203.85.
The Government will also protect 1.4 million of the poorest pensioner households from inflation by increasing Pension Credit by 10.1%, September CPI inflation, in April 2023. DWP benefits are fully devolved in Northern Ireland, so it is for the Northern Ireland Executive to decide uprating in Northern Ireland."
Benefit cap rise: The Government said: "In April 2023, the government will also increase the benefit cap in line with inflation by 10.1%. The benefit cap will rise from £23,000 to £25,323 for families in Greater London and from £20,000 to £22,020 for families nationally.
"Lower caps for single households without children will rise from £15,410 to £16,967 in Greater London and from £13,400 to £14,753 nationally."
THE RESULT OF ALL THIS LARGESS is in effect 'Universal Basic Income' (UBI), something which governments have been toying with for years in their vision of a utopian future implemented with their dystopian CBDCs, promoted by the UN, IMF and WEF et al, and Herr Klaus Schwab at the G20 meeting recently did not mince his words. Through his thick Teutonic accent, in one minute, you will note that the West will attempt to implement their ‘One World Government’ eschewing the multipolar world envisioned by Eastasia. Either way we are screwed!
FINALLY: “Tory strategists hope Hunt will have done enough to stabilise the economy and, if the international picture improves, that Britain could start to emerge from recession before the next election – [yeah, right and I have a bridge to sell you!]. They are banking on households being in a better place financially and so less likely to punish the Tories electorally [LOL]. However, by pushing back £30bn of spending cuts until after the election, the Chancellor has guaranteed that the state of public services will be a key battleground in the run-up to the next election.” [You’re not kidding!]
UNTIL SATURDAY: For more, read: “The Financial Jigsaw”: Scroll: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358117070_THE_FINANCIAL_JIGSAW_-_PART_1_-_4th_Edition_2020 including regular updates. For a free PDF copy e-Books, Parts 1 & 2, email; email@example.com
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One thing I would say about employment in the UK is that much of it is ZHC and combined with insane housing costs many people are literally unable to survive without UC.
When we were at school they told us that the "worst thing ever" would be to be stuck in a "dead esnd job" doing the same thing day in day out.
Well in the present times, a set regular job that pays even minimum wage is almost aspirational to many people and I am sorry but it just isn't right.
The hell games continue in the US and UK, always postponing the pain. Maybe I shall be wrong in thinking the end of the game is in progress. The WEF and all thoughts of a central anything producing improvements in lives is always the dream that can never happen. The best governments take a minimalist approach to managing affairs but that doesn't please those who wish to control. So the cycle tries again.