Chasing the Oligarchs – UK Mini Budget Disaster – SUPPLY CHAIN Slowly Fracturing – Plan B? — Letter from Great Britain [04-02-22]
My book “The Financial Jigsaw” has now been accepted and published at my academic network. Scroll down and Hit: ‘View Full Text’ button for the complete book: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358117070_THE_FINANCIAL_JIGSAW_-_PART_1_-_4th_Edition_2020 I will be pleased to email a free PDF on request to: email@example.com.
THOUGHT FOR THE WEEK: “It seems that we have entered into times when there are wars and diseases which are speeding up around us, which also might bring times of food distribution problems, or if I want to sound dramatic, famine. Also, all of us, no matter where we are living, are back into times when nuclear war was a real and probable danger, and when teenagers like me had classes to “protect” ourselves from the blast.
One could say that there were always wars (and rumors about it), famines, strange diseases somewhere in the world, all the way through human history. However I do think we are speeding up, and we now live in a world where lot of things can happen in 12 hours.
Wars can start; countries actually can be destroyed in that time. The modern world is simply too small a place for events like this. It affects everyone. I am writing this article influenced by local and world news and under the influence of folk’s feelings, common folks that I see and talk with every day, so it is without particular order, just things that I see and feel around me.” https://www.theorganicprepper.com/selcos-neighborhood/
BREAKING NEWS: After a disastrous Mini- Budget, ‘Dishi Rishi’ got roasted. “For the first time Sunak lapsed into near silence. Just waiting for the end. There were no photo ops to be had. No flags to pose behind. If his budget hadn’t been career-ending, then his Brexit indiscretion might be. His life was just going from bad to worse. It would be just his luck to end the week with a fixed penalty notice for Partygate.” [20 elite miscreants have been issued with fixed penalty notices this week – more to come]. Here are the agonising details of the select committee: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/28/do-you-think-people-are-stupid-sunak-shrugged-of-course-he-did AND more here if you have the stamina for the details: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/01/bleak-friday-uk-prices-1-april-energy-bills-tv-beer And it’s no April Fool!
THUS BRITAIN’S Mini-Budget has been analysed after the dust settled from last week: “UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s 2022 spring statement was delivered in the haze of an extremely testing economic environment. As the war in Ukraine rages on, inflation has hit a 30-year high, energy bills are about to soar, tax rises are imminent and the fallout from COVID continues. With events straining the financial resources of millions of households, our panel of experts offer their views on Sunak’s announcement.” Here are various experts explaining the unpleasant implications: Spring-statement-2022-quick-analysis-about-standard-of-living-energy-crisis-and-more-from-experts
SO HERE IS A GREAT QUESTION from one of my favourite commentators, Yanis Varoufakis, a former finance minister of Greece, leader of the MeRA25 party and Professor of Economics at the University of Athens. You won’t see this in the British press.
“So, if non-Russian billionaires are also oligarchs, does the exclusive emphasis in the West on Russians mean that “our” oligarchs, and those nurtured by our allies, are in some sense better? Here we are treading on treacherous ethical ground. Arguing that the Saudi billionaires behind the decade-long devastation of Yemen are “better” than Abramovich is to invite mockery. Putin would feel vindicated if we dared claim that the US oilmen who reaped a windfall from the illegal US-UK invasion of Iraq were morally superior to the owners of Rosneft and Gazprom.
To be sure, Putin’s oligarchs turn a blind eye whenever a brave journalist is snuffed out in Russia. But, meanwhile, WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange withers in a high-security UK prison, under conditions bordering on torture, for having exposed Western countries’ war crimes following their illegal invasion of Iraq. And how did Western oligarchs and governments respond when their Saudi business partners dismembered the Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi?
Following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the UK government declared its determination to rip away the veil of secrecy and deception shrouding the money parked in Britain to escape the scrutiny of law enforcement and tax authorities. Whether the reality matches the rhetoric remains to be seen. Already, there are signs of tension between the ambition to seize oligarchs’ money and the imperative of keeping Britain “open for business”.
Perhaps the only silver lining in the Ukrainian tragedy is that it has created an opportunity to scrutinise oligarchs. not only with Russian passports. but also their US, Saudi, Chinese, Indian, Nigerian, and, yes, Greek counterparts. An excellent place to start would be with the London mansions that Transparency International tells us sit empty. How about turning them over to refugees from Ukraine and Yemen? And, while we’re at it, why not turn over Chelsea FC to its fans?” https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2022-03-27-why-stop-at-the-russian-oligarchs? AND YANIS is not alone. This illustrated article clearly shows how our unipolar, US-dominated world is transmogrifying into a bipolar one. Which side will you be on? https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/26/interesting-map-shows-countries-who-support-western-govt-sanctions-against-russia-vs-those-who-do-not/
SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION and demographics are coming back to bite us as the Globalists’ offshoring advantages disappear in an inflationary holocaust. This is following the pattern I predicted in Chapter 13 of my book: ‘The Financial Jigsaw’ Part 1 and Appendices (accessed in the link at the top) Nota Bene: On Monday, 14 March, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned of a “hurricane of hunger and a meltdown of the global food system” in the wake of the crisis in Ukraine. Guterres said: “Food, fuel and fertilizer prices are skyrocketing. Supply chains are being disrupted. And the costs and delays of transportation of imported goods – when available – are at record levels.” BUT are the sanctions levied on Russia hurting them or are they targeting us? Kit Knightly asks the question. “Regardless of what you feel about Putin, Zelensky, the war in general or Ukrainian Nazis, it’s time to confront the elephant in room. We need to be asking: What exactly is the real aim of these sanctions? And how come they align so perfectly with the Great Reset?” https://off-guardian.org/2022/03/30/is-russia-the-real-target-of-western-sanctions/ AND as a reminder, shortages were apparent long before the war. This from January 2022: https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/01/28/two-shortages-that-threaten-to-absolutely-eviscerate-the-global-economy-in-2022/
CARRYING ON WITH THE THEME – here is an edited précis of a recent long article by David Stockman: “U.S. manufacturing wages, in fact, are now less than four times as much as those in China, compared with more than 26 times when China joined the WTO in 2001, according to recent research by investment firm KKR. And that’s just the warm-up: China’s workforce is expected to shrink by about 100 million over the next 15 years – an economic pile-driver that will cause the deflationary “China Price” of the past three decades to morph into the inflationary “China Price” [plus] in the years ahead.
Moreover, this was all already well underway owing to the natural, baked-in demographics of the global labor market. But now that Washington has jumped the shark with its rabid ‘Sanctions War’ against the global trading and payments system, the shift is likely to be sharply aggravated.
Thus the 26:1 labor cost advantage that China possessed in the early 21st century, when the supply chain was globalizing at break-neck speed, was even then off-set in part by all the non-labor factors that go into global sourcing of goods. These include transportation costs, insurance costs, extended inventory pipelines, quality control, product delivery and availability risks, periodic premium costs for expedited shipping and much more. Yet on balance the former well outweighed the latter, causing delivered product prices to systematically fall.
The proof of the pudding is in the PCE deflator for durable goods, which got massively off-shored into the low-cost nooks and crannies of the global supply chain during the “inflation sabbatical” of 1995-2019. As it happened, the index dropped by a staggering 40% during that period – a one-time deflationary plunge that has no precedent in economic history.
Now, however, the potential upside of all these non-labor supply chain costs and risks have increased substantially. Global supply chains are contracting dramatically because in many instances the labor differential will no longer profitably offset these associated costs.
The “low inflation” canard was always a statistical mirage, but under the double-whammy of rising global labor costs and soaring supply chain expense, there will now be no doubt. Substantial, persistent inflation in the cost of goods is inevitable, leaving the central bankers of the world to finally shutdown their QE bond buying and address interest rates.
This will seriously impact Wall Street as investors using margin and debt get caught in a trap leaving defaults and bankruptcies to exceed even the levels attained in 2008-9. There’s a massive increase in currency creation and inflation happening around the world seriously damaging savers and retirees.
Unfortunately, there’s little any individual can practically do to change this trend; it’s baked in the cake now. As global goods prices climb steadily higher under the double-whammy of rising labor costs and de-globalization of supply chains our clueless Keynesian central bankers will do nothing to arrest it – nay they are likely engineering it. Supply chains are reeling back in toward the domestic cost structure and exacerbating inflation.
Non-petroleum share of the trade deficit has ballooned during the last three decades. The ex-petroleum US trade deficit was just $8 billion per month in 1998 and now stands at nearly $90 billion per month owing to the fracking revolution which has reduced the petroleum deficit to zero. This means that the inflationary whirlwind bearing down on the goods accounts will be all the more virulent.
The fact is, governments don’t determine the output level or the trade balance of economies; the forces of supply, demand and investment/disinvestment incentives do. The peak level of US domestic crude oil production reached 13.1 million b/d in February 2020 as a consequence of global petroleum price and investment cycle.
One obvious feature is the time-lag between when world oil prices peaked at $150 per barrel in July 2008 and the mobilization of investment and production technology in the US shale patch that brought domestic production roaring back. Under the impact of the worldwide crash of demand caused by the Covid Lockdowns the world oil price crashed to below $20 per barrel in the spring of 2020; at one point it weirdly went negative.
In the case of the US shale patch, that was an instantaneous death knell for new drilling. Yet owing to the deep and rapid decline rates of shale wells, lack of drilling translates into a plunge of production rates only a few quarters down the road.
By January 2021 production had remained plateaued at just above the September bottom of 10.9 million b/d. By January 2022, however, it had recovered to 11.5 million b/d. Now that oil has reached $100 per barrel we can expect a new burst of global drilling and production in the medium term. There’s plenty of oil and gas, but unless the Globalist Banksters encourage a rapid growth of investment in the energy sector, the masses will be paying the price, as always. The rich get richer and the poor get stuffed, that’s all you need to know. I’m looking at you, Blackrock et al!
AND PREPPERS warn – get ready now. "Out of chaos, however, Adams foresees a reawakening of freedom and self-reliance in the way we grow and produce food. “I think this is a red pill moment for the people of the world that they need to be more self-reliant. We need decentralization of food production. I’m a big proponent of decentralization—food grown locally. The bad news is that only about 5 percent of people in the United State are prepared. But “the more people prepare, the less they panic when shortages appear,” Adams said." https://www.theepochtimes.com/doomsday-preppers-warn-of-hard-times-ahead-as-preparedness-goes-mainstream
LAST WEEK – I mentioned the need to have a PLAN B as these events unfold. Here is advice about events in Ukraine: https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/03/28/valuable-lessons-from-bad-planning-russia-and-ukraine-edition/
COLLAPSE MONITOR: It is difficult to measure the degree to which our economies are collapsing because nobody of any consequence is telling the truth. Would our PM lie to us? Of course he would! Boris Johnson is a stranger to the truth.
Take PartyGate for example, which has raised its ugly head once again. First he told Parliament no parties had taken place in Downing Street and that he would be furious if there had been. Then that he had not been to any parties personally. Only work events that looked like parties. Now the excuse is that if he did go to a party, he only did so for 10 minutes. So that’s all right then. And already 20 people have been fined for rule-breaking in Downing Street. And guess who made the rules in the first place and was on the TV most nights persuading everyone to obey them?
“But would I lie to you? Definitely not! I have become near enough a transcription service in the ongoing Johnson embarrassment of parties, Covid and Brexit. I couldn’t make this stuff up if I tried;” as one reporter on MSM put it – tongue in cheek I guess – because any truth-tellers on the MSM?: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/29/partygate-new-threat-to-boris-johnsons-leadership-as-met-fines-20-over-scandal This is as close as I can get to the truth on MSM.
THE NARRATIVE BATTLE HAS SHIFTED from Covid to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). “The CEO of BlackRock, [Larry Fink], thinks the war in Ukraine and the events surrounding it could be used to accelerate the adoption of CBDCs. Along with Vanguard and State Street, Blackrock is considered one of the “Big Three” index fund managers that dominate corporate America, and ultimately the world.”
By January 2021, the “Big Three” had almost US$18 trillion in assets under management – (70% of current US GDP). They are mighty big players and go to the dark heart of the global cabal managed by the WEF: https://dailyexpose.uk/2022/03/31/blackrock-ceo-russia-invasion-used-for-cbdc/
NOTE: Nominal USD GDP Rankings by Country (2020): United States (GDP: 20.49 trillion); China (GDP: 13.4 trillion); Japan: (GDP: 4.97 trillion); Germany: (GDP: 4.00 trillion); United Kingdom: (GDP: 2.83 trillion); France: (GDP: 2.78 trillion); India: (GDP: 2.72 trillion); Italy: (GDP: 2.07 trillion), and little Russia at (1.71 trillion).
Nathan Rothschild was not wrong: “he who controls the money controls the world” and for now it definitely is America, by a wide margin, with current GDP at nearly $25 trillion.
NOW THAT BITCOIN is in the frame (or rather blockchain), most know the person or group of people who invented the blockchain as ‘Satoshi Nakamoto’. “Doing a quick web search, you’ll find out that ‘Satoshi’ is usually a name given for baby boys which means “clear thinking, quick witted, wise,” while ‘Nakamoto’ is a Japanese surname which means ‘central origin’ or ‘(one who lives) in the middle’ as people with this surname are found mostly in the Ryukyu islands.” So, combining Nakamoto and Satoshi can be loosely interpreted as “Central Intelligence”. The plot thickens?
“The persona Satoshi Nakamoto was involved in the early days of Bitcoin, working on the first version of the software in 2009. Communication to and from Nakamoto was conducted electronically, and the lack of personal and background details meant that it was impossible to find out the actual identity behind the name. Nakamoto’s involvement with Bitcoin, however, ended in 2010.” Here’s all you need to know about Bitcoin history and who might be the original creator: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/satoshi-nakamoto.asp
BUT SINCE the news at present is rather sombre, perhaps some informative satire will lift our hearts by understanding the confounding difference between men’s brains and that those of the gentler sex:
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