ABSOLUTE ZERO! – Utopian Dreams – Magical Thinking – China Stock Market Rebound? – General Motors Moves to Hybrids – Tesla Moment of Truth – Volvo Abandons Polestar EV - [02-04-24]

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BOOM EDITORIAL THIS WEEK

ABSOLUTE ZERO – UTOPIAN DREAMS, DELUSIONS AND MAGICAL THINKING.  Mix false assumptions, false conclusions, moral panic, delusion, anxiety, catastrophism, lack of critical thinking, lack of consultation, dreams of Utopia, academic groupthink, and magical thinking and you will get…Absolute Zero.

Absolute Zero is a report produced by the ‘UK FIRES Group’, dated 29^th November 2019. FIRES stands for ‘Future Industrial Strategy Resource Efficiency’. Why they called it the ‘FIRES Group’ instead of the ‘FISRE Group’ is a mystery.

The Absolute ZERO Report reveals alarming plans to change British society rapidly and dramatically so that “climate change can be avoided”. However, it does not set a target temperature for the planet or for anywhere on the planet. There is no plan to monitor or audit outcomes or to measure success. This is a one way trip to Climate Utopia from a group of University academics ensconced in their ivory towers high above any industrial activity.

In the Executive Summary, the first sentence states, “We have to cut our greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050: that’s what [some] climate scientists tell us”. There is no rationale presented for this statement. It’s simply presented as an ultimatum or perhaps an article of faith.

BOOM searched for the word “target” in the document. It does mention “zero emissions”, net zero”, a “legal target”, “target challenges”, “Reaching Absolute Zero requires a collaboration between individuals, government and businesses. None of them can act unilaterally, so reaching the target will be a process”, “annual global emissions from human activities must be reduced rapidly and should be eliminated by 2050 – in thirty years”, the target of Absolute Zero”.

Human beings emit Carbon Dioxide which has been labelled a “greenhouse gas”. So — will all human beings be required to stop breathing by 2050 to meet the Absolute Zero Emissions Target?

The report hides behind a legal imperative to justify its existence. It states — “In her last significant act as Prime Minister, Theresa May changed the UK’s Climate Change Act to commit us to eliminating all greenhouse gas emissions in the UK by 2050.” Note: ALL Greenhouse Emissions.

The report rightfully explains that current “solutions” to the “problem” are not going to make enough difference.  Quote: “We’re concerned that most plans for dealing with climate change depend on breakthrough technologies and thus won’t deliver in time.”

The authors state rather flippantly, “We’ll only have to cut our use of energy to 60% of today’s levels.”

The word “only” is the alarm bell. BOOM interprets this into economic and social outcomes. Perhaps a more honest and more thorough statement should have been made. For example: “You will have to make dramatic, drastic changes in how you live by reducing your energy use by 40% from today’s levels, leaving no room for any significant economic growth. This will lead to economic stagnation at best and possible dramatic economic contraction at worst with huge increases in unemployment, bankruptcies, and possible starvation. All of this can only be achieved via Totalitarian Government controls. Massive social unrest will therefore be inevitable.”

[AP Comment: ‘Smart Meters’ come to mind - I have already reduced my energy consumption by 76%!  Quote: “A typical household in Britain uses 2,700 kilowatt hours (kWh) of domestic electricity and 11,500 kWh of (heating) gas/oil per annum; here are my energy statistics from when I lived in the UK.  In South Africa, it’s 76% less than the UK at 3,377 kWh per annum!]

But they appear uninterested in the possible economic consequences. They move on to state “…. we’ll all stop using aeroplanes.”  That statement concentrates the mind of any reader.  Perhaps it should have been followed by the admonition, “You will do as we say, or else”. Does that mean all of us? Perhaps the elite alone will be allowed to travel using aircraft?

And “We must stop eating beef and lamb”.  Again, what (exactly) do they mean by “we”?  Do they mean YOU/US?  Correctly, they realise that cement is a major issue. BOOM has previously read that cement is responsible for 10% of all global CO2 emissions.  “However the most difficult problem is cement: making cement releases emissions regardless of how it’s powered, there are currently no alternative options available at scale”

The Report is produced by a group of academics from the following UK educational institutions with little input from industry, consumers, or financial experts. Tellingly, the report states, “The authors of this report are funded by the government”.

• University of Cambridge

• University of Bath

• University of Nottingham

• University of Strathclyde

• University of Oxford

• Imperial College

To demonstrate that some consultation has taken place, the report states, “The UK government has invested £5m in the UK FIRES research programme, bringing together the academics from six universities who have written this report with businesses across the supply chain in a ‘Living Lab’.” BOOM is not sure what a “Living Lab” is but it is costly to construct. They show a cute diagram to explain this one sentence that deals with the consultation process:

The real world of economic activity where goods and services are produced and funded by the financial sector appears to have been essentially ignored. Most of the references provided appear to be from academic or government publications.

Quote: “The fossil fuel, cement, shipping, and aviation industries face rapid contraction, while construction and many manufacturing sectors can continue at today’s scales, with appropriate transformations.”  Here are its most disturbing proposals including the end of aviation (for most people), massive airport closures, and no new roads. Travelling:

• Stop using aeroplanes

• Take the train not the car when possible.

• Use all the seats in the car or get a smaller one

• Choose an electric car next time, if possible, which will become easier as prices fall and charging infrastructure expands.

• Lobby for more trains, no new roads, airport closure, and more renewable electricity.

The authors’ Utopian vision for the future includes an idle populace, left with no meaningful employment. That is revealed under the heading of  “Leisure, sports, creative arts, and voluntary work.” The report states “These sectors can expand greatly”. They want the Mining and Materials industries to contract dramatically, as if by some kind of magic; there is magical thinking throughout the document.

They have done some sums/math and reached this conclusion on electric cars: “By 2050 (we) will have only 60% of the electricity required to power a fleet equivalent to that in use today. Therefore, we will either use 40% fewer cars or they will be 60% the size.”  It is more magic as if everyone will be happy to discard their freedom of movement to happily jump on publicly provided electric trains, taxis, and buses for every trip. However, they are concerned about car batteries, “The rapid expansion of lithium battery production may hit short-term supply constraints and create environmental concerns…”. Hmm, environmental concerns?

On Aviation: Quote: “There are no options for zero-emissions flight in the time available for action, so the industry faces a rapid contraction. Developments in electric flight may be relevant beyond 2050.”

On Energy: Quote: “All coal, gas, and oil-fuel supply from extraction through the supply chain to retail must close within 30 years”.

The Report provides a Summary Image (above). It shows that within just five years, by the end of 2029: “Only three airports will be in operation in the UK. They will include Heathrow, Glasgow and Belfast. ALL OTHER AIRPORTS WILL BE CLOSED.  And by 2049, those three major airports will also be closed. THE END OF [mass?] AVIATION? And “all shipping will decline to zero”. THE END OF SHIPPING?

By 2029, in the next five years, beef and lamb consumption is planned to drop by 50%. By 2049, there will be no beef or lamb production and all imported foods (not transported by electric train) will be banned. Quote: “… the best estimates of science today predict that annual global emissions from human activities must be reduced rapidly and should be eliminated by 2050 – in thirty years. This target, which requires extraordinarily rapid change, is now law in the UK, and several other countries. However, despite the science and the laws, global emissions are still rising.”

Quote: “The two renewable technologies now being deployed widely are wind turbines and solar cells. These critical forms of electricity generation are essential and should be deployed as fast as possible, but Fig. 1.3 shows that combined with nuclear power and hydroelectricity, they still contribute only a small fraction of total global energy demand.”

The real truth finally emerges in this sentence, “the only solutions available in the time remaining requires some change of lifestyle”.   The authors request a “discussion” to resolve this roadblock.  “This report therefore aims to trigger that critical discussion.” Some “change of lifestyle” will be required.  Some “specific restraint in our lifestyles.” And all we need to do is have a “discussion” to settle the matter?

To BOOM, that sounds like an ultimatum from a crime boss or perhaps from the leader of a Boy Scout group.  In this discussion, do they plan to make us an offer we can’t refuse?  Or do they want us to all hold hands and joyfully sing Kumbayah? [Kum ba yah (“Come by here”) is an African/American spiritual song known to be sung in the Gullah culture in the islands of South Carolina and Georgia, with ties to enslaved Africans.] Note, the enslaved aspect of the song.  Is enslavement part of this plan?

On and on the report goes for 54 pages with dense images such as this one which seeks to explain Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

This section on “Opportunity in Governance” shows the “Governance Structure” that will be required, replete with “groups”, “advisory committees”, “programmes”, “executives”, “authorities”, and (many) government departments.

Sir Humphrey Appleby from the famous British “Yes Minister” television series would be glowing with pride and enthusiasm if he ever saw such a plan involving multiple layers of bureaucracy and endless meetings. [AP added video]:

Please Note: The population of the UK is 67.8 Million. But only 37,400 people have viewed the Download page and there have only been 153,000 Downloads of the Report (according to the statistics provided).  In other words, very, very few people in the UK have seen this ‘£5m Absolute Zero Report’ which strongly supports dramatic, draconian changes to life in Britain. Social, financial, and economic reality is missing.  BOOM suggests the Absolute Zero Report be given a score of Absolute Zero.

[As AP observes: HMG is very good at obfuscation when implementing new laws – who has time to read 54 pages?  Thanks, BOOM for reading so we don’t have to!]

Another Sir Humphrey Appleby Quote: “Civil servants have an extraordinary genius for wrapping up a simple idea to make it sound extremely complicated.”― [Jonathan Lynn, The Complete Yes Minister.]

Download the 54-page Absolute Zero Report HERE.  [Hit the Download Button, then go to the PDF link under the Heading “Files”. That will Download a PDF Version to your Download Folder.]

THE CHINA STOCK MARKET MAY BE CLOSE TO A REBOUND.  On 21^st January, two short weeks ago, BOOM wrote “BOOM’s China trade indicator has turned upwards in the last two months and is gaining strength. This is a reliable sign of increased Chinese trade which usually precedes a resurgence of the domestic economy.”

And “… if the upswing in external trade continues, then we should soon see a rebound in the Chinese economy and a subsequent rebound in stock prices.”

Over the last two weeks, BOOM’s China trade indicator has continued to show a sharp recovery. The indicator has increased by 20% in that time frame. This is a significant change in direction. It suggests strength in both the Global economy and the Chinese economy.

And, since BOOM made that forecast, investors have poured US$12bn into the Chinese stock market as reported by Reuters. This is the largest inflow of funds in eight years and is the second largest on record.  Perhaps BOOM’s Japanese readers are influential?

Technically, the Chinese stock market indices have not yet shown a base formation. However, with huge investment inflows and a recovering trade picture, there is potential here for a significant turnaround soon in stock market valuations.

The Shanghai Composite Index Total Market Capitalisation is around US$6tn. In comparison, the S&P 500 stock index in the US is valued at around US$42tn. Total market cap is calculated by summing the market capitalisation of every company in the index. The long term charts are certainly interesting.

The Shanghai Composite Stock Index has been falling since 2015. This 25-year chart reveals two sharp price peaks in November 2007, and in June 2015.  Since 2015, there has not been any joy for investors. A turnaround would appear to be long overdue.

The Hong Kong Hang Seng Stock Index shows four sharp price peaks including the peak in 2007.  However, the market has been in steady decline since February 2021.

In the 25 years under consideration, the annual GDP of China, measured in US Dollars, has grown from US$1tn to $ US18tn. But China’s GDP measured in PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) is now above US$30tn which is considerably higher than the United States.

The Chinese New Year begins next week, on Saturday, February 10^th and this year is the year of the Dragon.  In Chinese mythology, the Dragon is powerful, endlessly energetic, full of vitality, goal-oriented yet idealistic and romantic, and a visionary leader.  Sounds perfect for a stock market turnaround, n'est-ce pas?  For this to happen the Chinese government will have to encourage its people to become investors in the stock market.

GENERAL MOTORS MOVES TO HYBRIDS.  General Motors, one of the “Big Three” US car manufacturers, has decided to move away from electric cars and towards Hybrids. They claim that this is only an interim measure as they move towards all-electric.

The CEO said, “Let me be clear, GM remains committed to eliminating tailpipe emissions from our light-duty vehicles by 2035, but, in the interim, deploying plug-in technology in strategic segments will deliver some of the environment or environmental benefits of EVs as the nation continues to build this charging infrastructure.”

However, in BOOM’s opinion, that is more a political statement rather than a true indication of their intentions. They currently make only one Hybrid car model for the US market so this is a big change of direction.

The announcement was made last Tuesday and investors responded rapidly and improved earnings helped.  GM shares rose sharply and finished the week up by 10.6%.

BTW - Ford has recently announced a huge cut in electric vehicle (EV) production. It is losing $36,000 on each EV vehicle sold and around 50% of its dealers refused to take any EV cars in 2023 and its unsold EV inventory is 92,000 vehicles.

TESLA’S MOMENT OF TRUTH. US Shareholders have abandoned many electric car companies over the last 2-3 years. Investors have largely decided that electric vehicles are not commercially viable in the long run.

Tesla shareholders are the hold-out of true believers. However, Tesla shares have been falling since the peak in late 2021.  Last week, after a mixed week of trading, they found some support (which appeared less than enthusiastic) above $180 to close at $187.91.  If the tenuous $180 support level is broken, the market will almost certainly move lower from here towards $150 and $100 levels - watching closely. This could well be the moment of truth for Tesla shares.

BOOM has previously documented the share price collapse in almost all other companies in the sector. The share price falls have been dramatic and some are arguably the greatest collapses in history.

Mullen Automotive shares, for example, have fallen from $451,000 per share on August 5^th, 2020 to $7.00 per share last Friday. This represents three years of terror for any Mullen investors who held on.

VOLVO ABANDONS POLESTAR ELECTRIC.  In this bizarre world of electric cars, there was another notable event last week. The Swedish brand Volvo, listed as Volvo Cars (Volcar) on the Swedish stock market and which is now principally owned by the Chinese company, Geely, announced that it would no longer provide financial support to the all-electric Polestar company which it founded with the Geely Chairman, Eric Li. And Volvo Cars is aiming to sell its remaining holding in the company to Geely.

Polestar was an IPO in mid-2021 and began its life as a publicly listed company with a share price of US$10.00. Those shares are now trading at $1.79.  As with all electric car companies, it has a fabulous website.   However, its financial reports are far from stellar. For the three months ended September 2023, its unaudited financial statements show a Revenue of US$613mn. Gross profit was $6.3mn (1% of revenue) but Operating Costs resulted in an Operating Loss of $260mn. The company’s Cash Balance fell by $22.8mn from the previous accounting period. In financial terms, this is called “spinning your wheels”. There is a lot of activity going on but no profit is emerging.

Volvo Car shares (VOLCAR-B.ST) are listed in Stockholm. The leadership of the company appears devoted to becoming all-electric. As a result, the shares are also showing the typical decline of electric car companies, even though only 16% of its sales are currently electric. The leadership’s devotion to an all-electric future has not inspired its shareholders, quite the opposite. The share price chart over the last two years reveals what investors are thinking.

Volvo AB, the parent company, sold off its Volvo car division to Ford in 1999. Ford subsequently sold Volvo Cars to Geely in 2010.

In contrast to Polestar and Volvo Car, Volvo AB shares have performed well over the last five years. Volvo AB makes trucks, buses and construction equipment. It also supplies marine and industrial drive systems and financial services.

Thanks for reading BOOM Finance and Economics.  Subscribe to BOOM Finance and Economics on Substack linked below.  BOOM has developed a loyal readership over five years (on other platforms) which includes many of the world’s most senior economists, central bankers, fund managers, and academics. Dr Gerry Brady 2024

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COMING NEXT:

• Letter from Great Britain – Broken Britain – Saturday, February 10, 2024

• BOOM Weekly Global Review – Tuesday, February 13, 2024

• The Financial Jigsaw Part 2 - Chapter 3 - Reality Check – Sat., February 17, 2024

In economics, things work until they don’t.  Make your conclusions and do research.  BOOM does not offer investment advice.

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BANKS DON’T TAKE DEPOSITS, THEY BORROW YOUR MONEY: LOANS CREATE DEPOSITS — this is how almost all new money is created in the economy (by commercial banks making loans). https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.  Watch the short 15-minute video and see Professor Richard Werner brilliantly explaining how global banking systems work.

In 2014, Richard Werner provided the first empirical evidence that banks create credit out of thin air.  They do this whenever they issue a loan or, more specifically, purchase a promissory note. This is a walk-through of exactly how they do it.

Many economists are unaware of this and even ignore the banking & finance sectors in their econometric models.

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